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  What do we mean, 'tipping cascade'?

Klose, A. K., Wunderling, N., Winkelmann, R., Donges, J. F. (2021): What do we mean, 'tipping cascade'? - Environmental Research Letters, 16, 12, 125011.
https://doi.org/10.1088/1748-9326/ac3955

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 Creators:
Klose, Ann Kristin1, Author              
Wunderling, Nico1, Author              
Winkelmann, Ricarda1, Author              
Donges, Jonathan Friedemann1, Author              
Affiliations:
1Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research, ou_persistent13              

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 Abstract: Based on suggested interactions of potential tipping elements in the Earth's climate and in ecological systems, tipping cascades as possible dynamics are increasingly discussed and studied as their activation would impose a considerable risk for human societies and biosphere integrity. However, there are ambiguities in the description of tipping cascades within the literature so far. Here we illustrate how different patterns of multiple tipping dynamics emerge from a very simple coupling of two previously studied idealized tipping elements. In particular, we distinguish between a two phase cascade, a domino cascade and a joint cascade. While a mitigation of an unfolding two phase cascade may be possible and common early warning indicators are sensitive to upcoming critical transitions to a certain degree, the domino cascade may hardly be stopped once initiated and critical slowing down–based indicators fail to indicate tipping of the following element. These different potentials for intervention and anticipation across the distinct patterns of multiple tipping dynamics should be seen as a call to be more precise in future analyses on cascading dynamics arising from tipping element interactions in the Earth system.

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Language(s): eng - English
 Dates: 2021-08-062021-11-122021-11-122021-12
 Publication Status: Finally published
 Pages: 12
 Publishing info: -
 Table of Contents: -
 Rev. Type: Peer
 Identifiers: PIKDOMAIN: RD1 - Earth System Analysis
PIKDOMAIN: RD4 - Complexity Science
Organisational keyword: RD1 - Earth System Analysis
Organisational keyword: RD4 - Complexity Science
Research topic keyword: Nonlinear Dynamics
Research topic keyword: Tipping Elements
Working Group: FutureLab - Earth Resilience in the Anthropocene
Working Group: Ice Dynamics
DOI: 10.1088/1748-9326/ac3955
MDB-ID: yes - 3263
OATYPE: Gold Open Access
 Degree: -

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Project name : TiPACCs
Grant ID : 820575
Funding program : Horizon 2020 Framework Programme (H2020-LC-CLA-2018-2)
Funding organization : EUROPEAN COMMISSION

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Title: Environmental Research Letters
Source Genre: Journal, SCI, Scopus, p3, oa
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Publ. Info: -
Pages: - Volume / Issue: 16 (12) Sequence Number: 125011 Start / End Page: - Identifier: CoNE: https://publications.pik-potsdam.de/cone/journals/resource/150326
Publisher: IOP Publishing