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Responsibility under uncertainty: which climate decisions matter most?

Botta, N., Brede, N., Crucifix, M., Ionescu, C., Jansson, P., Li, Z., Martínez-Montero, M., Richter, T. (2023): Responsibility under uncertainty: which climate decisions matter most? - Environmental Modeling and Assessment, 28, 337-365.
https://doi.org/10.1007/s10666-022-09867-w

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Datensatz-Permalink: https://publications.pik-potsdam.de/pubman/item/item_27500 Versions-Permalink: https://publications.pik-potsdam.de/pubman/item/item_27500_8

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Urheber:
Botta, Nicola¹, Autor
Brede, Nuria¹, Autor
Crucifix, Michel ², Autor
Ionescu, Cezar ², Autor
Jansson, Patrik ², Autor
Li, Zheng ², Autor
Martínez-Montero, Marina², Autor
Richter, Tim ², Autor

Affiliations:
1Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research, ou_persistent13
2External Organizations, ou_persistent22

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Zusammenfassung: We propose a new method for estimating how much decisions under monadic uncertainty matter. The method is generic and suitable for measuring responsibility in finite horizon sequential decision processes. It fulfills “fairness” requirements and three natural conditions for responsibility measures: agency, avoidance and causal relevance. We apply the method to study how much decisions matter in a stylized greenhouse gas emissions process in which a decision maker repeatedly faces two options: start a “green” transition to a decarbonized society or further delay such a transition. We account for the fact that climate decisions are rarely implemented with certainty and that their consequences on the climate and on the global economy are uncertain. We discover that a “moral” approach towards decision making — doing the right thing even though the probability of success becomes increasingly small — is rational over a wide range of uncertainties.

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Sprache(n): eng - Englisch

Datum: Angenommen: 2022-10-23Online veröffentlicht: 2023-02-02Final veröffentlicht: 2023-06

Publikationsstatus: Final veröffentlicht

Seiten: 29

Ort, Verlag, Ausgabe: -

Inhaltsverzeichnis: -

Art der Begutachtung: Expertenbegutachtung

Identifikatoren: MDB-ID: No data to archive
PIKDOMAIN: RD4 - Complexity Science
Organisational keyword: RD4 - Complexity Science
Research topic keyword: Attribution
Research topic keyword: Climate Policy
Research topic keyword: Policy Advice
Model / method: Decision Theory
Model / method: Open Source Software
Model / method: Quantitative Methods
OATYPE: Hybrid - DEAL Springer Nature
DOI: 10.1007/s10666-022-09867-w

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Projektname : TiPES

Grant ID : 820970

Förderprogramm : Horizon 2020 (H2020)

Förderorganisation : European Commission (EC)

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Titel: Environmental Modeling and Assessment

Genre der Quelle: Zeitschrift, SCI, Scopus, p3

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Seiten: - Band / Heft: 28 Artikelnummer: - Start- / Endseite: 337 - 365 Identifikator: CoNE: https://publications.pik-potsdam.de/cone/journals/resource/journals126
Publisher: Springer