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  Risks of synchronized low yields are underestimated in climate and crop model projections

Kornhuber, K., Lesk, C., Schleussner, C. F., Jägermeyr, J., Pfleiderer, P., Horton, R. M. (2023): Risks of synchronized low yields are underestimated in climate and crop model projections. - Nature Communications, 14, 3528.
https://doi.org/10.1038/s41467-023-38906-7

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 Creators:
Kornhuber, Kai1, Author
Lesk, Corey1, Author
Schleussner, Carl F.1, Author
Jägermeyr, Jonas2, Author              
Pfleiderer, Peter1, Author
Horton, Radley M.1, Author
Affiliations:
1External Organizations, ou_persistent22              
2Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research, ou_persistent13              

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 Abstract: Simultaneous harvest failures across major crop-producing regions are a threat to global food security. Concurrent weather extremes driven by a strongly meandering jet stream could trigger such events, but so far this has not been quantified. Specifically, the ability of state-of-the art crop and climate models to adequately reproduce such high impact events is a crucial component for estimating risks to global food security. Here we find an increased likelihood of concurrent low yields during summers featuring meandering jets in observations and models. While climate models accurately simulate atmospheric patterns, associated surface weather anomalies and negative effects on crop responses are mostly underestimated in bias-adjusted simulations. Given the identified model biases, future assessments of regional and concurrent crop losses from meandering jet states remain highly uncertain. Our results suggest that model-blind spots for such high-impact but deeply-uncertain hazards have to be anticipated and accounted for in meaningful climate risk assessments.

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Language(s): eng - English
 Dates: 2022-04-292023-05-172023-07-042023-07-04
 Publication Status: Finally published
 Pages: 10
 Publishing info: -
 Table of Contents: -
 Rev. Type: Peer
 Identifiers: DOI: 10.1038/s41467-023-38906-7
Organisational keyword: RD2 - Climate Resilience
PIKDOMAIN: RD2 - Climate Resilience
Working Group: Land Use and Resilience
Research topic keyword: Atmosphere
Research topic keyword: Extremes
Research topic keyword: Food & Agriculture
Regional keyword: Global
MDB-ID: No data to archive
OATYPE: Gold Open Access
 Degree: -

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Title: Nature Communications
Source Genre: Journal, SCI, Scopus, p3, oa
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Pages: - Volume / Issue: 14 Sequence Number: 3528 Start / End Page: - Identifier: CoNE: https://publications.pik-potsdam.de/cone/journals/resource/journals354
Publisher: Nature