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  Teleconnected food supply shocks

Bren d'Amour, C., Wenz, L., Kalkuhl, M., Steckel, J. C., Creutzig, F. (2016): Teleconnected food supply shocks. - Environmental Research Letters, 11, 3, 035007.
https://doi.org/10.1088/1748-9326/11/3/035007

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Bren d'Amour, Christopher1, Author
Wenz, Leonie2, Author              
Kalkuhl, Matthias1, Author
Steckel, Jan Christoph2, Author              
Creutzig, Felix1, Author
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1External Organizations, ou_persistent22              
2Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research, ou_persistent13              

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 Abstract: The 2008–2010 food crisis might have been a harbinger of fundamental climate-induced food crises with geopolitical implications. Heat-wave-induced yield losses in Russia and resulting export restrictions led to increases in market prices for wheat across the Middle East, likely contributing to the Arab Spring. With ongoing climate change, temperatures and temperature variability will rise, leading to higher uncertainty in yields for major nutritional crops. Here we investigate which countries are most vulnerable to teleconnected supply-shocks, i.e. where diets strongly rely on the import of wheat, maize, or rice, and where a large share of the population is living in poverty. We find that the Middle East is most sensitive to teleconnected supply shocks in wheat, Central America to supply shocks in maize, and Western Africa to supply shocks in rice. Weighing with poverty levels, Sub-Saharan Africa is most affected. Altogether, a simultaneous 10% reduction in exports of wheat, rice, and maize would reduce caloric intake of 55 million people living in poverty by about 5%. Export bans in major producing regions would put up to 200 million people below the poverty line at risk, 90% of which live in Sub-Saharan Africa. Our results suggest that a region-specific combination of national increases in agricultural productivity and diversification of trade partners and diets can effectively decrease future food security risks.

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 Dates: 2016
 Publication Status: Finally published
 Pages: -
 Publishing info: -
 Table of Contents: -
 Rev. Type: Peer
 Identifiers: DOI: 10.1088/1748-9326/11/3/035007
PIKDOMAIN: Sustainable Solutions - Research Domain III
eDoc: 7181
Research topic keyword: Food & Agriculture
Research topic keyword: Climate impacts
Research topic keyword: Complex Networks
Research topic keyword: Inequality and Equity
Research topic keyword: Economics
Model / method: Nonlinear Data Analysis
Regional keyword: Global
Regional keyword: Africa
Organisational keyword: RD4 - Complexity Science
Organisational keyword: RD3 - Transformation Pathways
Working Group: Data-based analysis of climate decisions
 Degree: -

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Title: Environmental Research Letters
Source Genre: Journal, SCI, Scopus, p3, oa
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Pages: - Volume / Issue: 11 (3) Sequence Number: 035007 Start / End Page: - Identifier: CoNE: https://publications.pik-potsdam.de/cone/journals/resource/150326