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  Emergent constraint on crop yield response to warmer temperature from field experiments

Wang, X., Zhao, C., Müller, C., Wang, C., Ciais, P., Janssens, I., Peñuelas, J., Asseng, S., Li, T., Elliott, J., Huang, Y., Li, L., Piao, S. (2020): Emergent constraint on crop yield response to warmer temperature from field experiments. - Nature Sustainability, 3, 11, 908-916.
https://doi.org/10.1038/s41893-020-0569-7

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 Creators:
Wang, Xuhui1, Author
Zhao, Chuang1, Author
Müller, Christoph2, Author              
Wang, Chenzhi1, Author
Ciais, Philippe1, Author
Janssens, Ivan1, Author
Peñuelas, Josep1, Author
Asseng, Senthold1, Author
Li, Tao1, Author
Elliott, Joshua1, Author
Huang, Yao1, Author
Li, Laurent1, Author
Piao, Shilong1, Author
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1External Organizations, ou_persistent22              
2Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research, ou_persistent13              

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 Abstract: Responses of global crop yields to warmer temperatures are fundamental to sustainable development under climate change but remain uncertain. Here, we combined a global dataset of field warming experiments (48 sites) for wheat, maize, rice and soybean with gridded global crop models to produce field-data-constrained estimates on responses of crop yield to changes in temperature (ST) with the emergent-constraint approach. Our constrained estimates show with >95% probability that warmer temperatures would reduce yields for maize (−7.1 ± 2.8% K−1), rice (−5.6 ± 2.0% K−1) and soybean (−10.6 ± 5.8% K−1). For wheat, ST was 89% likely to be negative (−2.9 ± 2.3% K−1). Uncertainties associated with modelled ST were reduced by 12–54% for the four crops but data constraints do not allow for further disentangling ST of different crop types. A key implication for impact assessments after the Paris Agreement is that direct warming impacts alone will reduce major crop yields by 3–13% under 2 K global warming without considering CO2 fertilization effects and adaptations. Even if warming was limited to 1.5 K, all major producing countries would still face notable warming-induced yield reduction. This yield loss could be partially offset by projected benefits from elevated CO2, whose magnitude remains uncertain, and highlights the challenge to compensate it by autonomous adaptation.

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 Dates: 2020-06-032020-06-292020-11-05
 Publication Status: Finally published
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 Rev. Type: Peer
 Identifiers: DOI: 10.1038/s41893-020-0569-7
MDB-ID: No data to archive
PIKDOMAIN: RD2 - Climate Resilience
Organisational keyword: RD2 - Climate Resilience
Working Group: Land Use and Resilience
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Title: Nature Sustainability
Source Genre: Journal, SCI, Scopus
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Pages: - Volume / Issue: 3 (11) Sequence Number: - Start / End Page: 908 - 916 Identifier: Other: Springer Nature
Other: 2398-9629
CoNE: https://publications.pik-potsdam.de/cone/journals/resource/nature-sustainability
Publisher: Nature