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  Quantifying paleo-reconstruction skill of the Southern Annular Mode in a model framework

Huiskamp, W. N., McGregor, S. (in press): Quantifying paleo-reconstruction skill of the Southern Annular Mode in a model framework. - Climate of the Past.
https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-2020-133

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Item Permalink: https://publications.pik-potsdam.de/pubman/item/item_25884 Version Permalink: https://publications.pik-potsdam.de/pubman/item/item_25884_1
Genre: Journal Article

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 Creators:
Huiskamp, Willem Nicholas1, Author              
McGregor, Shayne2, Author
Affiliations:
1Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research, ou_persistent13              
2External Organizations, ou_persistent22              

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 Abstract: Past attempts to reconstruct the Southern Annular Mode (SAM) using paleo archives have resulted in records which can differ significantly from one another prior to the window over which the proxies are calibrated. This study attempts to quantify not only the skill with which we may expect to reconstruct the SAM, but also assess the contribution of regional bias in proxy selection and the impact of non-stationary proxy-SAM teleconnections on a resulting reconstruction. This is achieved using a pseudo-proxy framework with output from the CM2.1 global climate model. Reconstructions derived from precipitation fields perform better, with 89 % of reconstructions calibrated over a 61 year window able to reproduce at least 50 % of inter-annual variance in the SAM, as opposed to just 25 % for surface temperature (SAT) derived reconstructions. Non-stationarity of proxy-SAM teleconnections, as defined here, plays a negligible role in reconstructions, however the range in reconstruction skill is not negligible. Reconstructions were most likely to be skilful when proxies are sourced from a geographically broad region, with a network size of 70 proxies.

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Language(s): eng - English
 Dates: 2021-08-02
 Publication Status: Accepted / In Press
 Pages: -
 Publishing info: -
 Table of Contents: -
 Rev. Type: Peer
 Identifiers: DOI: 10.5194/cp-2020-133
MDB-ID: No data to archive
Organisational keyword: RD1 - Earth System Analysis
PIKDOMAIN: RD1 - Earth System Analysis
Research topic keyword: Paleoclimate
Regional keyword: Oceania/Australia
Regional keyword: South America
Regional keyword: Arctic & Antarctica
Working Group: Long-Term Dynamics of the Earth System
OATYPE: Gold Open Access
 Degree: -

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Title: Climate of the Past
Source Genre: Journal, SCI, Scopus, p3, oa
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Publ. Info: -
Pages: - Volume / Issue: - Sequence Number: - Start / End Page: - Identifier: CoNE: https://publications.pik-potsdam.de/cone/journals/resource/journals78
Publisher: Copernicus