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  Day-to-day temperature variability reduces economic growth

Kotz, M., Wenz, L., Stechemesser, A., Kalkuhl, M., Levermann, A. (2021): Day-to-day temperature variability reduces economic growth. - Nature Climate Change, 11, 4, 319-325.
https://doi.org/10.1038/s41558-020-00985-5

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Item Permalink: https://publications.pik-potsdam.de/pubman/item/item_24903 Version Permalink: https://publications.pik-potsdam.de/pubman/item/item_24903_4
Genre: Journal Article

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 Creators:
Kotz, Maximilian1, Author              
Wenz, Leonie1, Author              
Stechemesser, Annika1, Author              
Kalkuhl, Matthias2, Author
Levermann, Anders1, Author              
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1Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research, Potsdam, ou_persistent13              
2External Organizations, ou_persistent22              

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 Abstract: Elevated annual average temperature has been found to impact macro-economic growth. However, various fundamental elements of the economy are affected by deviations of daily temperature from seasonal expectations which are not well reflected in annual averages. Here we show that increases in seasonally adjusted day-to-day temperature variability reduce macro-economic growth independent of and in addition to changes in annual average temperature. Combining observed day-to-day temperature variability with subnational economic data for 1,537 regions worldwide over 40 years in fixed-effects panel models, we find that an extra degree of variability results in a five percentage-point reduction in regional growth rates on average. The impact of day-to-day variability is modulated by seasonal temperature difference and income, resulting in highest vulnerability in low-latitude, low-income regions (12 percentage-point reduction). These findings illuminate a new, global-impact channel in the climate–economy relationship that demands a more comprehensive assessment in both climate and integrated assessment models.

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 Dates: 2020-12-082021-02-082021-04-15
 Publication Status: Finally published
 Pages: -
 Publishing info: -
 Table of Contents: -
 Rev. Type: Peer
 Identifiers: PIKDOMAIN: RD4 - Complexity Science
Organisational keyword: RD4 - Complexity Science
Working Group: Data-based analysis of climate decisions
Regional keyword: Global
Research topic keyword: Climate impacts
Research topic keyword: Economics
Research topic keyword: Sustainable Development
MDB-ID: yes - 3076
DOI: 10.1038/s41558-020-00985-5
 Degree: -

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Project name : Impact of intensified weather extremes on Europe's economy (ImpactEE)
Grant ID : 93350
Funding program : Europe and Global Challenges
Funding organization : VolkswagenStiftung

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Title: Nature Climate Change
Source Genre: Journal, SCI, Scopus, p3
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Pages: - Volume / Issue: 11 (4) Sequence Number: - Start / End Page: 319 - 325 Identifier: CoNE: https://publications.pik-potsdam.de/cone/journals/resource/140414
Publisher: Springer Nature