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  Future Sea Level Change Under Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 5 and Phase 6 Scenarios From the Greenland and Antarctic Ice Sheets

Payne, A. J., Nowicki, S., Abe‐Ouchi, A., Agosta, C., Alexander, P., Albrecht, T., Asay‐Davis, X., Aschwanden, A., Barthel, A., Bracegirdle, T. J., Calov, R., Chambers, C., Choi, Y., Cullather, R., Cuzzone, J., Dumas, C., Edwards, T. L., Felikson, D., Fettweis, X., Galton‐Fenzi, B. K., Goelzer, H., Gladstone, R., Golledge, N. R., Gregory, J. M., Greve, R., Hattermann, T., Hoffman, M. J., Humbert, A., Huybrechts, P., Jourdain, N. C., Kleiner, T., Munneke, P. K., Larour, E., Le clec'h, S., Lee, V., Leguy, G., Lipscomb, W. H., Little, C. M., Lowry, D. P., Morlighem, M., Nias, I., Pattyn, F., Pelle, T., Price, S. F., Quiquet, A., Reese, R., Rückamp, M., Schlegel, N., Seroussi, H., Shepherd, A., Simon, E., Slater, D., Smith, R. S., Straneo, F., Sun, S., Tarasov, L., Trusel, L. D., Van Breedam, J., Wal, R. v. d., Broeke, M. v. d., Winkelmann, R., Zhao, C., Zhang, T., Zwinger, T. (2021): Future Sea Level Change Under Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 5 and Phase 6 Scenarios From the Greenland and Antarctic Ice Sheets. - Geophysical Research Letters, 48, 16, e2020GL091741.

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Payne, Antony J.1, Author
Nowicki, Sophie1, Author
Abe‐Ouchi, Ayako1, Author
Agosta, Cécile1, Author
Alexander, Patrick1, Author
Albrecht, Torsten2, Author              
Asay‐Davis, Xylar1, Author
Aschwanden, Andy1, Author
Barthel, Alice1, Author
Bracegirdle, Thomas J.1, Author
Calov, Reinhard2, Author              
Chambers, Christopher1, Author
Choi, Youngmin1, Author
Cullather, Richard1, Author
Cuzzone, Joshua1, Author
Dumas, Christophe1, Author
Edwards, Tamsin L.1, Author
Felikson, Denis1, Author
Fettweis, Xavier1, Author
Galton‐Fenzi, Benjamin K.1, Author
Goelzer, Heiko1, AuthorGladstone, Rupert1, AuthorGolledge, Nicholas R.1, AuthorGregory, Jonathan M.1, AuthorGreve, Ralf1, AuthorHattermann, Tore1, AuthorHoffman, Matthew J.1, AuthorHumbert, Angelika1, AuthorHuybrechts, Philippe1, AuthorJourdain, Nicolas C.1, AuthorKleiner, Thomas1, AuthorMunneke, Peter Kuipers1, AuthorLarour, Eric1, AuthorLe clec'h, Sebastien1, AuthorLee, Victoria1, AuthorLeguy, Gunter1, AuthorLipscomb, William H.1, AuthorLittle, Christopher M.1, AuthorLowry, Daniel P.1, AuthorMorlighem, Mathieu1, AuthorNias, Isabel1, AuthorPattyn, Frank1, AuthorPelle, Tyler1, AuthorPrice, Stephen F.1, AuthorQuiquet, Aurélien1, AuthorReese, Ronja2, Author              Rückamp, Martin1, AuthorSchlegel, Nicole‐Jeanne1, AuthorSeroussi, Hélène1, AuthorShepherd, Andrew1, AuthorSimon, Erika1, AuthorSlater, Donald1, AuthorSmith, Robin S.1, AuthorStraneo, Fiammetta1, AuthorSun, Sainan1, AuthorTarasov, Lev1, AuthorTrusel, Luke D.1, AuthorVan Breedam, Jonas1, AuthorWal, Roderik van de1, AuthorBroeke, Michiel van den1, AuthorWinkelmann, Ricarda2, Author              Zhao, Chen1, AuthorZhang, Tong1, AuthorZwinger, Thomas1, Author more..
1External Organizations, ou_persistent22              
2Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research, Potsdam, ou_persistent13              


Free keywords: -
 Abstract: Projections of the sea level contribution from the Greenland and Antarctic ice sheets (GrIS and AIS) rely on atmospheric and oceanic drivers obtained from climate models. The Earth System Models participating in the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project phase 6 (CMIP6) generally project greater future warming compared with the previous Coupled Model Intercomparison Project phase 5 (CMIP5) effort. Here we use four CMIP6 models and a selection of CMIP5 models to force multiple ice sheet models as part of the Ice Sheet Model Intercomparison Project for CMIP6 (ISMIP6). We find that the projected sea level contribution at 2100 from the ice sheet model ensemble under the CMIP6 scenarios falls within the CMIP5 range for the Antarctic ice sheet but is significantly increased for Greenland. Warmer atmosphere in CMIP6 models results in higher Greenland mass loss due to surface melt. For Antarctica, CMIP6 forcing is similar to CMIP5 and mass gain from increased snowfall counteracts increased loss due to ocean warming.


 Dates: 2021-05-042021-08-192021-08-19
 Publication Status: Finally published
 Pages: -
 Publishing info: -
 Table of Contents: -
 Rev. Type: Peer
 Identifiers: DOI: 10.1029/2020GL091741
PIKDOMAIN: RD1 - Earth System Analysis
Organisational keyword: RD1 - Earth System Analysis
Working Group: Ice Dynamics
Regional keyword: Arctic & Antarctica
Research topic keyword: Sea-level Rise
Model / method: SICOPOLIS
Research topic keyword: Ice
MDB-ID: No data to archive
OATYPE: Hybrid Open Access
 Degree: -



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Source 1

Title: Geophysical Research Letters
Source Genre: Journal, SCI, Scopus, p3
Publ. Info: -
Pages: - Volume / Issue: 48 (16) Sequence Number: e2020GL091741 Start / End Page: - Identifier: CoNE: https://publications.pik-potsdam.de/cone/journals/resource/journals182
Publisher: American Geophysical Union (AGU)
Publisher: Wiley