English
 
Privacy Policy Disclaimer
  Advanced SearchBrowse

Item

ITEM ACTIONSEXPORT
  Forecasting the El Niño type well before the spring predictability barrier

Ludescher, J., Bunde, A., Schellnhuber, H. J. (2023): Forecasting the El Niño type well before the spring predictability barrier. - npj Climate and Atmospheric Science, 6, 196.
https://doi.org/10.1038/s41612-023-00519-8

Item is

Files

show Files
hide Files
:
29183oa.pdf (Publisher version), 3MB
Name:
29183oa.pdf
Description:
-
Visibility:
Public
MIME-Type / Checksum:
application/pdf / [MD5]
Technical Metadata:
Copyright Date:
-
Copyright Info:
-

Locators

show

Creators

show
hide
 Creators:
Ludescher, Josef1, Author              
Bunde, Armin2, Author
Schellnhuber, Hans Joachim1, Author              
Affiliations:
1Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research, Potsdam, ou_persistent13              
2External Organizations, ou_persistent22              

Content

show
hide
Free keywords: -
 Abstract: El Niño events represent anomalous episodic warmings, which can peak in the equatorial Central Pacific (CP events) or Eastern Pacific (EP events). The type of an El Niño (CP or EP) has a major influence on its impact and can even lead to either dry or wet conditions in the same areas on the globe. Here we show that the difference of the sea surface temperature anomalies between the equatorial western and central Pacific in December enables an early forecast of the type of an upcoming El Niño (p-value < 10−3). Combined with a previously introduced climate network-based approach that allows to forecast the onset of an El Niño event, both the onset and type of an upcoming El Niño can be efficiently forecasted. The lead time is about 1 year and should allow early mitigation measures. In December 2022, the combined approach forecasted the onset of an EP event in 2023.

Details

show
hide
Language(s): eng - English
 Dates: 2023-11-222023-11-22
 Publication Status: Finally published
 Pages: 9
 Publishing info: -
 Table of Contents: -
 Rev. Type: Peer
 Identifiers: DOI: 10.1038/s41612-023-00519-8
PIKDOMAIN: RD1 - Earth System Analysis
Organisational keyword: RD1 - Earth System Analysis
PIKDOMAIN: Director Emeritus / Executive Staff / Science & Society
Organisational keyword: Director Emeritus Schellnhuber
Working Group: Earth System Modes of Operation
Model / method: Quantitative Methods
MDB-ID: No data to archive
OATYPE: Gold Open Access
 Degree: -

Event

show

Legal Case

show

Project information

show

Source 1

show
hide
Title: npj Climate and Atmospheric Science
Source Genre: Journal, SCI, Scopus, oa
 Creator(s):
Affiliations:
Publ. Info: -
Pages: - Volume / Issue: 6 Sequence Number: 196 Start / End Page: - Identifier: CoNE: https://publications.pik-potsdam.de/cone/journals/resource/npj-climate-atmospheric-science
Publisher: Nature