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  Available and missing data to model impact of climate change on European forests

Ruiz-Benito, P., Vacchiano, G., Lines, E. R., Reyer, C. P. O., Ratcliffe, S., Morin, X., Hartig, F., Mäkelä, A., Yousefpour, R., Chaves, J. E., Palacios-Orueta, A., Benito-Garzón, M., Morales-Molino, C., Camarero, J. J., Jump, A. S., Kattge, J., Lehtonen, A., Ibrom, A., Owen, H. J. F., Zavala, M. A. (2020): Available and missing data to model impact of climate change on European forests. - Ecological Modelling, 416, 108870.
https://doi.org/10.1016/j.ecolmodel.2019.108870

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 Creators:
Ruiz-Benito, P.1, Author
Vacchiano, G.1, Author
Lines, E. R.1, Author
Reyer, Christopher P. O.2, Author              
Ratcliffe, S.1, Author
Morin, X.1, Author
Hartig, F.1, Author
Mäkelä, A.1, Author
Yousefpour, R.1, Author
Chaves, J. E.1, Author
Palacios-Orueta, A.1, Author
Benito-Garzón, M.1, Author
Morales-Molino, C.1, Author
Camarero, J. J.1, Author
Jump, A. S.1, Author
Kattge, J.1, Author
Lehtonen, A.1, Author
Ibrom, A.1, Author
Owen, H. J. F.1, Author
Zavala, M. A.1, Author
Affiliations:
1External Organizations, ou_persistent22              
2Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research, ou_persistent13              

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 Abstract: Climate change is expected to cause major changes in forest ecosystems during the 21st century and beyond. To assess forest impacts from climate change, the existing empirical information must be structured, harmonised and assimilated into a form suitable to develop and test state-of-the-art forest and ecosystem models. The combination of empirical data collected at large spatial and long temporal scales with suitable modelling approaches is key to understand forest dynamics under climate change. To facilitate data and model integration, we identified major climate change impacts observed on European forest functioning and summarised the data available for monitoring and predicting such impacts. Our analysis of c. 120 forest-related databases (including information from remote sensing, vegetation inventories, dendroecology, palaeoecology, eddy-flux sites, common garden experiments and genetic techniques) and 50 databases of environmental drivers highlights a substantial degree of data availability and accessibility. However, some critical variables relevant to predicting European forest responses to climate change are only available at relatively short time frames (up to 10-20 years), including intra-specific trait variability, defoliation patterns, tree mortality and recruitment. Moreover, we identified data gaps or lack of data integration particularly in variables related to local adaptation and phenotypic plasticity, dispersal capabilities and physiological responses. Overall, we conclude that forest data availability across Europe is improving, but further efforts are needed to integrate, harmonise and interpret this data (i.e. making data useable for non-experts). Continuation of existing monitoring and networks schemes together with the establishments of new networks to address data gaps is crucial to rigorously predict climate change impacts on European forests.

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 Dates: 2020
 Publication Status: Finally published
 Pages: -
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 Table of Contents: -
 Rev. Type: Peer
 Identifiers: DOI: 10.1016/j.ecolmodel.2019.108870
PIKDOMAIN: RD2 - Climate Resilience
eDoc: 8635
Research topic keyword: Climate impacts
Research topic keyword: Ecosystems
Model / method: Qualitative Methods
Regional keyword: Europe
Organisational keyword: RD2 - Climate Resilience
Working Group: Forest and Ecosystem Resilience
 Degree: -

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Title: Ecological Modelling
Source Genre: Journal, SCI, Scopus, p3
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Pages: - Volume / Issue: 416 Sequence Number: 108870 Start / End Page: - Identifier: CoNE: https://publications.pik-potsdam.de/cone/journals/resource/journals109
Publisher: Elsevier