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  Tightening EU ETS targets in line with the European Green Deal: Impacts on the decarbonization of the EU power sector

Pietzcker, R. C., Osorio, S., Dias Bleasby Rodrigues, R. (2021): Tightening EU ETS targets in line with the European Green Deal: Impacts on the decarbonization of the EU power sector. - Applied Energy, 293, 116914.
https://doi.org/10.1016/j.apenergy.2021.116914

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Item Permalink: https://publications.pik-potsdam.de/pubman/item/item_25612 Version Permalink: https://publications.pik-potsdam.de/pubman/item/item_25612_1
Genre: Journal Article

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 Creators:
Pietzcker, Robert C.1, Author              
Osorio, Sebastian1, Author              
Dias Bleasby Rodrigues, Renato1, Author              
Affiliations:
1Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research, ou_persistent13              

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Free keywords: EU ETS
 Abstract: The EU Green Deal calls for climate neutrality by 2050 and emission reductions of 50–55% in 2030 in comparison to 1990. Achieving these reductions requires a substantial tightening of the regulations of the EU emissions trading system (EU ETS). This paper explores how the power sector would have to change in reaction to a tighter EU ETS target, and analyses the technological and economic implications. To cover the major ETS sectors, we combine a detailed power sector model with a marginal-abatement cost curve representation of industry emission abatement. We find that tightening the target would speed up the transformation by 3–17 years for different parts of the electricity system, with renewables contributing 74% of the electricity in 2030, EU-wide coal use almost completely phased-out by 2030 instead of 2045, and zero electricity generation emissions reached by 2040. Carbon prices within the EU ETS would more than triple to 129€/tCO2 in 2030, reducing cumulated power sector emissions from 2017 to 2057 by 54% compared to a scenario with the current target. This transformation would come at limited costs: total discounted power system costs would only increase by 5%. We test our findings against a number of sensitivities: an increased electricity demand, which might arise from sector coupling, increases deployment of wind and solar and prolongs gas usage. Not allowing transmission expansion beyond 2020 levels shifts investments from wind to PV, hydrogen and batteries, and increases total system costs by 3%. Finally, the unavailability of fossil carbon capture and storage (CCS) or further nuclear investments does not impact results. Unavailability of bioenergy-based CCS (BECCS) has a visible impact (18% increase) on cumulated power sector emissions, thus shifting more of the mitigation burden to the industry sector, but does not increase electricity prices or total system costs (<1% increase).

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Language(s): eng - English
 Dates: 2021-04-262021-05-012021-06-01
 Publication Status: Finally published
 Pages: -
 Publishing info: -
 Table of Contents: -
 Rev. Type: Peer
 Identifiers: MDB-ID: pending
Organisational keyword: RD3 - Transformation Pathways
PIKDOMAIN: RD3 - Transformation Pathways
Model / method: LIMES
Regional keyword: Europe
Regional keyword: Germany
Research topic keyword: Energy
Research topic keyword: Economics
Research topic keyword: Climate Policy
Research topic keyword: Carbon Pricing
Research topic keyword: Decarbonization  
Research topic keyword: Policy Advice
DOI: 10.1016/j.apenergy.2021.116914
OATYPE: Hybrid Open Access
 Degree: -

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Title: Applied Energy
Source Genre: Journal, SCI, Scopus, p3
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Pages: - Volume / Issue: 293 Sequence Number: 116914 Start / End Page: - Identifier: CoNE: https://publications.pik-potsdam.de/cone/journals/resource/0910
Publisher: Elsevier