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  Future heat stress to reduce people’s purchasing power

Kuhla, K., Willner, S., Otto, C., Wenz, L., Levermann, A. (2021): Future heat stress to reduce people’s purchasing power. - PloS ONE, 16, 6, e0251210.
https://doi.org/10.1371/journal.pone.0251210

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Item Permalink: https://publications.pik-potsdam.de/pubman/item/item_25567 Version Permalink: https://publications.pik-potsdam.de/pubman/item/item_25567_3
Genre: Journal Article

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 Creators:
Kuhla, Kilian1, Author              
Willner, Sven1, Author              
Otto, Christian1, Author              
Wenz, Leonie1, Author              
Levermann, Anders1, Author              
Affiliations:
1Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research, ou_persistent13              

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 Abstract: With increasing carbon emissions rising temperatures are likely to impact our economies and societies profoundly. In particular, it has been shown that heat stress can strongly reduce labor productivity. The resulting economic perturbations can propagate along the global supply network. Here we show, using numerical simulations, that output losses due to heat stress alone are expected to increase by about 24% within the next 20 years, if no additional adaptation measures are taken. The subsequent market response with rising prices and supply shortages strongly reduces the consumers’ purchasing power in almost all countries including the US and Europe with particularly strong effects in India, Brazil, and Indonesia. As a consequence, the producing sectors in many regions temporarily benefit from higher selling prices while decreasing their production in quantity, whereas other countries suffer losses within their entire national economy. Our results stress that, even though climate shocks may stimulate economic activity in some regions and some sectors, their unpredictability exerts increasing pressure on people’s livelihood.

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 Dates: 2021-04-222021-06-102021-06-10
 Publication Status: Finally published
 Pages: -
 Publishing info: -
 Table of Contents: -
 Rev. Type: Peer
 Identifiers: PIKDOMAIN: RD4 - Complexity Science
Organisational keyword: RD4 - Complexity Science
Organisational keyword: RD3 - Transformation Pathways
Working Group: Numerical analysis of global economic impacts
Working Group: Data-based analysis of climate decisions
Research topic keyword: Extremes
Research topic keyword: Climate impacts
Research topic keyword: Economics
Research topic keyword: Weather
Model / method: Acclimate
MDB-ID: yes - 3207
DOI: 10.1371/journal.pone.0251210
OATYPE: Gold Open Access
 Degree: -

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Project name : Ökonomie des Klimawandels – Verbundprojekt: Klima-Wirkungsketten in einer globalisierten Welt: eine Herausforderung für Deutschland (CLIC)
Grant ID : 01LA1817C
Funding program : Ökonomie des Klimawandels
Funding organization : BMBF

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Title: PloS ONE
Source Genre: Journal, SCI, Scopus, p3, OA
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Pages: - Volume / Issue: 16 (6) Sequence Number: e0251210 Start / End Page: - Identifier: CoNE: https://publications.pik-potsdam.de/cone/journals/resource/r1311121
Publisher: Public Library of Science (PLoS)