日本語
 
Privacy Policy ポリシー/免責事項
  詳細検索ブラウズ

アイテム詳細

登録内容を編集ファイル形式で保存
 
 
ダウンロード電子メール
 タグ情報を表示リリース履歴を表示詳細要約
  Projected land ice contributions to twenty-first-century sea level rise

Edwards, T. L., Nowicki, S., Marzeion, B., Hock, R., Goelzer, H., Seroussi, H., Smith, C. J., Jourdain, N. C., Slater, D., McKenna, C. M., Simon, E., Abe-Ouchi, A., Gregory, J. M., Larour, E., Lipscomb, W. H., Payne, A. J., Shepherd, A., Turner, F., Agosta, C., Alexander, P., Albrecht, T., Anderson, B., Asay-Davis, X., Aschwanden, A., Barthel, A., Bliss, A., Calov, R., Chambers, C., Champollion, N., Choi, Y., Cullather, R., Cuzzone, J., Dumas, C., Felikson, D., Fettweis, X., Fujita, K., Galton-Fenzi, B. K., Gladstone, R., Golledge, N. R., Greve, R., Hattermann, T., Hoffman, M. J., Humbert, A., Huss, M., Huybrechts, P., Immerzeel, W., Kleiner, T., Kraaijenbrink, P., Le clec'h, S., Lee, V., Leguy, G. R., Little, C. M., Lowry, D. P., Malles, J.-H., Martin, D. F., Maussion, F., Morlighem, M., O'Neill, J. F., Nias, I., Pattyn, F., Pelle, T., Price, S., Quiquet, A., Radić, V., Reese, R., Rounce, D. R., Rückamp, M., Sakai, A., Shafer, C., Schlegel, N.-J., Shannon, S., Smith, R. S., Straneo, F., Sun, S., Tarasov, L., Trusel, L. D., Breedam, J. V., van de Wal, R., van den Broeke, M., Winkelmann, R., Zekollari, H., Zhao, C., Zhang, T., & Zwinger, T. (2021). Projected land ice contributions to twenty-first-century sea level rise. Nature, 593(7857), 74-82. doi:10.1038/s41586-021-03302-y.

Item is

 

表示: 全項目 非表示: 全項目

基本情報

表示: 非表示:
アイテムのパーマリンク: https://publications.pik-potsdam.de/pubman/item/item_25040 版のパーマリンク: https://publications.pik-potsdam.de/pubman/item/item_25040_6
資料種別: 学術論文

ファイル

表示: ファイル
非表示: ファイル
:
25040oa_postprint.pdf (ポストプリント), 41MB
表示   保存
ファイルのパーマリンク:
https://publications.pik-potsdam.de/pubman/item/item_25040_5/component/file_26305/25040oa_postprint.pdf
ファイル名:
25040oa_postprint.pdf
説明:
-
閲覧制限:
公開
MIMEタイプ / チェックサム:
application/pdf / [MD5]
技術的なメタデータ:
表示
著作権日付:
-
著作権情報:
https://www.springernature.com/gp/open-research/policies/accepted-manuscript-terms
CCライセンス:
-

関連URL

表示:

作成者

表示:
非表示:
 作成者:
Edwards, Tamsin L.1, 著者
Nowicki, Sophie1, 著者
Marzeion, Ben1, 著者
Hock, Regine1, 著者
Goelzer, Heiko1, 著者
Seroussi, Hélène1, 著者
Smith, Christopher J.1, 著者
Jourdain, Nicolas C.1, 著者
Slater, Donald1, 著者
McKenna, Christine M.1, 著者
Simon, Erika1, 著者
Abe-Ouchi, Ayako1, 著者
Gregory, Jonathan M.1, 著者
Larour, Eric1, 著者
Lipscomb, William H.1, 著者
Payne, Antony J.1, 著者
Shepherd, Andrew1, 著者
Turner, Fiona1, 著者
Agosta, Cécile1, 著者
Alexander, Patrick1, 著者
Albrecht, Torsten2, 著者              Anderson, Brian1, 著者Asay-Davis, Xylar1, 著者Aschwanden, Andy1, 著者Barthel, Alice1, 著者Bliss, Andrew1, 著者Calov, Reinhard2, 著者              Chambers, Christopher1, 著者Champollion, Nicolas1, 著者Choi, Youngmin1, 著者Cullather, Richard1, 著者Cuzzone, Joshua1, 著者Dumas, Christophe1, 著者Felikson, Denis1, 著者Fettweis, Xavier1, 著者Fujita, Koji1, 著者Galton-Fenzi, Benjamin K.1, 著者Gladstone, Rupert1, 著者Golledge, Nicholas R.1, 著者Greve, Ralf1, 著者Hattermann, Tore1, 著者Hoffman, Matthew J.1, 著者Humbert, Angelika1, 著者Huss, Matthias1, 著者Huybrechts, Philippe1, 著者Immerzeel, Walter1, 著者Kleiner, Thomas1, 著者Kraaijenbrink, Philip1, 著者Le clec'h, Sébastien1, 著者Lee, Victoria1, 著者Leguy, Gunter R.1, 著者Little, Christopher M.1, 著者Lowry, Daniel P.1, 著者Malles, Jan-Hendrik1, 著者Martin, Daniel F.1, 著者Maussion, Fabien1, 著者Morlighem, Mathieu1, 著者O'Neill, James F.1, 著者Nias, Isabel1, 著者Pattyn, Frank1, 著者Pelle, Tyler1, 著者Price, Stephen1, 著者Quiquet, Aurélien1, 著者Radić, Valentina1, 著者Reese, Ronja2, 著者              Rounce, David R.1, 著者Rückamp, Martin1, 著者Sakai, Akiko1, 著者Shafer, Courtney1, 著者Schlegel, Nicole-Jeanne1, 著者Shannon, Sarah1, 著者Smith, Robin S.1, 著者Straneo, Fiammetta1, 著者Sun, Sainan1, 著者Tarasov, Lev1, 著者Trusel, Luke D.1, 著者Breedam, Jonas Van1, 著者van de Wal, Roderik1, 著者van den Broeke, Michiel1, 著者Winkelmann, Ricarda2, 著者              Zekollari, Harry1, 著者Zhao, Chen1, 著者Zhang, Tong1, 著者Zwinger, Thomas1, 著者 全て表示
所属:
1External Organizations, ou_persistent22              
2Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research, Potsdam, ou_persistent13              

内容説明

表示:
非表示:
キーワード: -
 要旨: The land ice contribution to global mean sea level rise has not yet been predicted with ice sheet and glacier models for the latest set of socio-economic scenarios, nor with coordinated exploration of uncertainties arising from the various computer models involved. Two recent international projects generated a large suite of projections using 100 multiple models, but mostly used previous generation scenarios and climate models, and could not fully explore known uncertainties. Here we estimate probability distributions for these projections under the new scenarios using statistical emulation of the ice sheet and glacier models, and find that limiting global warming to 1.5°C since preindustrial would halve the land ice contribution to sea level rise this century, relative to 105 predictions for current climate pledges under the Paris Agreement: the median 4 decreases from 25 to 13 cm sea level equivalent (SLE) by 2100, with glaciers responsible for half the sea level contribution. The Antarctic contribution does not show a clear response to emissions scenario, due to competing processes of increasing ice loss and snowfall accumulation in a warming climate. However, under risk-averse (pessimistic) assumptions, Antarctic ice loss could be five times higher, increasing 110 the median land ice contribution to 42 cm SLE under current policies and pledges, with the upper end (95th percentile) exceeding half a metre even under 1.5°C warming. This would severely limit the possibility of mitigating future coastal flooding. Until climate policies and the Antarctic response are further constrained, adaptation must therefore plan for a factor 115 of three uncertainty in the land ice contribution to global mean sea level rise.

資料詳細

表示:
非表示:
言語: eng - 英語
 日付: 2020-12-222021-05-052021-06
 出版の状態: Finally published
 ページ: -
 出版情報: -
 目次: -
 査読: 査読あり
 識別子（DOI, ISBNなど）: MDB-ID: yes - 3092
PIKDOMAIN: RD1 - Earth System Analysis
Organisational keyword: RD1 - Earth System Analysis
Regional keyword: Arctic & Antarctica
Working Group: Ice Dynamics
DOI: 10.1038/s41586-021-03302-y
OATYPE: Green Open Access
 学位: -

関連イベント

表示:

訴訟

表示:

Project information

表示: 非表示:
Project name : PROTECT
Grant ID : 869304
Funding program : Horizon 2020 Framework Programme (H2020-LC-CLA-2019-2)
Funding organization : -
Project name : PalMod
Grant ID : -
Funding program : (FKZ 01LP1502C and 01LP1504D)
Funding organization : BMBF
Project name : -
Grant ID : WI4556/2-1 and WI4556/4-1
Funding program : Antarctic Research with comparative investigations in Arctic ice areas
Funding organization : DFG
Project name : PalMod
Grant ID : FKZ: 01LP1925D
Funding program : -
Funding organization : BMBF
Project name : GIS
Grant ID : WI4556/3-1
Funding program : -
Funding organization : DFG
Project name : TiPACCs
Grant ID : 820575
Funding program : European Union’s Horizon 2020 Research and Innovation program
Funding organization : -

出版物 1

表示:
非表示:
出版物名: Nature
種別: 学術雑誌, SCI, Scopus, p3
 著者・編者:
所属:
出版社, 出版地: London : Nature Publishing Group
ページ: - 巻号: 593 (7857) 通巻号: - 開始・終了ページ: 74 - 82 識別子（ISBN, ISSN, DOIなど）: CoNE: https://publications.pik-potsdam.de/cone/journals/resource/journals353
Publisher: Nature