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  The biosphere under potential Paris outcomes

Ostberg, S., Boysen, L., Schaphoff, S., Lucht, W., Gerten, D. (2018): The biosphere under potential Paris outcomes. - Earth's Future, 6, 1, 23-39.
https://doi.org/10.1002/2017EF000628

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Ostberg, Sebastian1, Author              
Boysen, Lena1, Author              
Schaphoff, Sibyll1, Author              
Lucht, Wolfgang1, Author              
Gerten, Dieter1, Author              
Affiliations:
1Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research, ou_persistent13              

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 Abstract: Rapid economic and population growth over the last centuries have started to push the Earth out of its Holocene state into the Anthropocene. In this new era, ecosystems across the globe face mounting dual pressure from human land use change (LUC) and climate change (CC). With the Paris Agreement, the international community has committed to holding global warming below 2°C above preindustrial levels, yet current pledges by countries to reduce greenhouse gas emissions appear insufficient to achieve that goal. At the same time, the sustainable development goals strive to reduce inequalities between countries and provide sufficient food, feed, and clean energy to a growing world population likely to reach more than 9 billion by 2050. Here, we present a macro‐scale analysis of the projected impacts of both CC and LUC on the terrestrial biosphere over the 21st century using the Representative Concentration Pathways (RCPs) to illustrate possible trajectories following the Paris Agreement. We find that CC may cause major impacts in landscapes covering between 16% and 65% of the global ice‐free land surface by the end of the century, depending on the success or failure of achieving the Paris goal. Accounting for LUC impacts in addition, this number increases to 38%–80%. Thus, CC will likely replace LUC as the major driver of ecosystem change unless global warming can be limited to well below 2°C. We also find a substantial risk that impacts of agricultural expansion may offset some of the benefits of ambitious climate protection for ecosystems.

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 Dates: 2018
 Publication Status: Finally published
 Pages: -
 Publishing info: -
 Table of Contents: -
 Rev. Type: Peer
 Identifiers: DOI: 10.1002/2017EF000628
PIKDOMAIN: Earth System Analysis - Research Domain I
eDoc: 7933
Research topic keyword: Climate impacts
Research topic keyword: Ecosystems
Research topic keyword: Land use
Model / method: LPJmL
Regional keyword: Global
Organisational keyword: RD1 - Earth System Analysis
Organisational keyword: RD2 - Climate Resilience
Working Group: Earth System Model Development
Working Group: Terrestrial Safe Operating Space
Working Group: Land Use and Resilience
 Degree: -

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Title: Earth's Future
Source Genre: Journal, SCI, Scopus, p3, oa
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Pages: - Volume / Issue: 6 (1) Sequence Number: - Start / End Page: 23 - 39 Identifier: CoNE: https://publications.pik-potsdam.de/cone/journals/resource/170925