English
 
Privacy Policy Disclaimer
  Advanced SearchBrowse

Item

ITEM ACTIONSEXPORT
  The role of storage dynamics in annual wheat prices

Schewe, J., Otto, C., Frieler, K. (2017): The role of storage dynamics in annual wheat prices. - Environmental Research Letters, 12, 5, 054005.
https://doi.org/10.1088/1748-9326/aa678e

Item is

Files

show Files
hide Files
:
7591oa.pdf (Publisher version), 2MB
Name:
7591oa.pdf
Description:
-
Visibility:
Public
MIME-Type / Checksum:
application/pdf / [MD5]
Technical Metadata:
Copyright Date:
-
Copyright Info:
-
License:
-

Locators

show

Creators

show
hide
 Creators:
Schewe, Jacob1, Author              
Otto, Christian1, Author              
Frieler, Katja1, Author              
Affiliations:
1Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research, ou_persistent13              

Content

show
hide
Free keywords: -
 Abstract: Identifying the drivers of global crop price fluctuations is essential for estimating the risks of unexpected weather-induced production shortfalls and for designing optimal response measures. Here we show that with a consistent representation of storage dynamics, a simple supply–demand model can explain most of the observed variations in wheat prices over the last 40 yr solely based on time series of annual production and long term demand trends. Even the most recent price peaks in 2007/08 and 2010/11 can be explained by additionally accounting for documented changes in countries' trade policies and storage strategies, without the need for external drivers such as oil prices or speculation across different commodity or stock markets. This underlines the critical sensitivity of global prices to fluctuations in production. The consistent inclusion of storage into a dynamic supply-demand model closes an important gap when it comes to exploring potential responses to future crop yield variability under climate and land-use change.

Details

show
hide
Language(s):
 Dates: 2017
 Publication Status: Finally published
 Pages: -
 Publishing info: -
 Table of Contents: -
 Rev. Type: Peer
 Identifiers: DOI: 10.1088/1748-9326/aa678e
PIKDOMAIN: Climate Impacts & Vulnerabilities - Research Domain II
eDoc: 7591
Research topic keyword: Economics
Research topic keyword: Extremes
Research topic keyword: Food & Agriculture
Model / method: Agent-based Models
Organisational keyword: RD2 - Climate Resilience
Working Group: Event-based modeling of economic impacts of climate change
Working Group: Impacts of Climate Change on Human Population Dynamics
 Degree: -

Event

show

Legal Case

show

Project information

show

Source 1

show
hide
Title: Environmental Research Letters
Source Genre: Journal, SCI, Scopus, p3, oa
 Creator(s):
Affiliations:
Publ. Info: -
Pages: - Volume / Issue: 12 (5) Sequence Number: 054005 Start / End Page: - Identifier: CoNE: https://publications.pik-potsdam.de/cone/journals/resource/150326