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  Identifying pathways to visions of future land use in Europe

Verkerk, P. J., Lindner, M., Pérez-Soba, M., Paterson, J. S., Helming, J., Verburg, P. H., Kuemmerle, T., Lotze-Campen, H., Moiseyev, A., Müller, D., Popp, A., Schulp, C. J. E., Stürck, J., Tabeau, A., Wolfslehner, B., Zanden, E. H. v. d. (2018): Identifying pathways to visions of future land use in Europe. - Regional Environmental Change, 18, 3, 817-830.
https://doi.org/10.1007/s10113-016-1055-7

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 Creators:
Verkerk, P. J.1, Author
Lindner, M.1, Author
Pérez-Soba, M.1, Author
Paterson, J. S.1, Author
Helming, J.1, Author
Verburg, P. H.1, Author
Kuemmerle, T.1, Author
Lotze-Campen, Hermann2, Author              
Moiseyev, A.1, Author
Müller, D.1, Author
Popp, Alexander2, Author              
Schulp, C. J. E.1, Author
Stürck, J.1, Author
Tabeau, A.1, Author
Wolfslehner, B.1, Author
Zanden, E. H. van der1, Author
Affiliations:
1External Organizations, ou_persistent22              
2Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research, ou_persistent13              

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 Abstract: Plausible scenarios of future land use derived from model projections may differ substantially from what is actually desired by society, and identifying such mismatches is important for identifying policies to resolve them. This paper presents an approach to link explorative projections of future land use for the European Union to normative visions of desired land-use futures. We used the results of 24 scenario projections obtained from seven linked simulation models to explore uncertainty in future land-use developments. Land-use projections were linked to statements made by stakeholders for three normative visions of desired, future land use. The visions differed in the scale of multifunctionality of land use: at European (Best Land in Europe), regional (Regional Connected) or local (Local Multifunctional) level. To identify pathways to these visions, we analysed in which cases projected land-use changes matched with the land-use changes desired in the visions. We identified five pathways to the vision Regional Connected, two pathways to the vision Best Land in Europe, but no pathway to the vision Local Multifunctional. Our results suggest that policies have the ability to change the development of land use such that it is more in line with land-use futures desired by society. We believe our approach represents an interesting avenue for foresight studies on land use, as it combines the credibility from explorative scenarios with legitimacy and saliency of normative visions.

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 Dates: 2018
 Publication Status: Finally published
 Pages: -
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 Table of Contents: -
 Rev. Type: -
 Identifiers: DOI: 10.1007/s10113-016-1055-7
PIKDOMAIN: Climate Impacts & Vulnerabilities - Research Domain II
PIKDOMAIN: Sustainable Solutions - Research Domain III
eDoc: 7321
Research topic keyword: Land use
Research topic keyword: Food & Agriculture
Research topic keyword: Ecosystems
Research topic keyword: Economics
Research topic keyword: Biodiversity
Model / method: MAgPIE
Model / method: REMIND
Regional keyword: Global
Regional keyword: Europe
Organisational keyword: RD2 - Climate Resilience
Organisational keyword: RD3 - Transformation Pathways
Working Group: Land Use and Resilience
Working Group: Land-Use Management
 Degree: -

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Title: Regional Environmental Change
Source Genre: Journal, SCI, Scopus, p3
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Pages: - Volume / Issue: 18 (3) Sequence Number: - Start / End Page: 817 - 830 Identifier: CoNE: https://publications.pik-potsdam.de/cone/journals/resource/journals425