Identifying pathways to visions of future land use in Europe

Verkerk, P. J.; Lindner, M.; Pérez-Soba, M.; Paterson, J. S.; Helming, J.; Verburg, P. H.; Kuemmerle, T.; Lotze-Campen, Hermann; Moiseyev, A.; Müller, D.; Popp, Alexander; Schulp, C. J. E.; Stürck, J.; Tabeau, A.; Wolfslehner, B.; Zanden, E. H. van der

doi:10.1007/s10113-016-1055-7

Datensatz

DATENSATZ AKTIONENEXPORT

Zur Ablage hinzufügen

Lokale TagsFreigabegeschichteDetailsÜbersicht

Freigegeben

Zeitschriftenartikel

Identifying pathways to visions of future land use in Europe

Urheber*innen

Verkerk, P. J.
External Organizations;

Lindner, M.
External Organizations;

Pérez-Soba, M.
External Organizations;

Paterson, J. S.
External Organizations;

Helming, J.
External Organizations;

Verburg, P. H.
External Organizations;

Kuemmerle, T.
External Organizations;

/persons/resource/Lotze-Campen

Lotze-Campen, Hermann
Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research;

Moiseyev, A.
External Organizations;

Müller, D.
External Organizations;

/persons/resource/Alexander.Popp

Popp, Alexander
Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research;

Schulp, C. J. E.
External Organizations;

Stürck, J.
External Organizations;

Tabeau, A.
External Organizations;

Wolfslehner, B.
External Organizations;

Zanden, E. H. van der
External Organizations;

Externe Ressourcen

Es sind keine externen Ressourcen hinterlegt

Volltexte (frei zugänglich)

7321oa.pdf
(Postprint), 2MB

Ergänzendes Material (frei zugänglich)

Es sind keine frei zugänglichen Ergänzenden Materialien verfügbar

Zitation

Verkerk, P. J., Lindner, M., Pérez-Soba, M., Paterson, J. S., Helming, J., Verburg, P. H., Kuemmerle, T., Lotze-Campen, H., Moiseyev, A., Müller, D., Popp, A., Schulp, C. J. E., Stürck, J., Tabeau, A., Wolfslehner, B., Zanden, E. H. v. d. (2018): Identifying pathways to visions of future land use in Europe. - Regional Environmental Change, 18, 3, 817-830.
https://doi.org/10.1007/s10113-016-1055-7

Zitierlink: https://publications.pik-potsdam.de/pubman/item/item_21131

Zusammenfassung

Plausible scenarios of future land use derived from model projections may differ substantially from what is actually desired by society, and identifying such mismatches is important for identifying policies to resolve them. This paper presents an approach to link explorative projections of future land use for the European Union to normative visions of desired land-use futures. We used the results of 24 scenario projections obtained from seven linked simulation models to explore uncertainty in future land-use developments. Land-use projections were linked to statements made by stakeholders for three normative visions of desired, future land use. The visions differed in the scale of multifunctionality of land use: at European (Best Land in Europe), regional (Regional Connected) or local (Local Multifunctional) level. To identify pathways to these visions, we analysed in which cases projected land-use changes matched with the land-use changes desired in the visions. We identified five pathways to the vision Regional Connected, two pathways to the vision Best Land in Europe, but no pathway to the vision Local Multifunctional. Our results suggest that policies have the ability to change the development of land use such that it is more in line with land-use futures desired by society. We believe our approach represents an interesting avenue for foresight studies on land use, as it combines the credibility from explorative scenarios with legitimacy and saliency of normative visions.