Global trends and scenarios for terrestrial biodiversity and ecosystem services 
from 1900 to 2050

Pereira, Henrique M.; Martins, Inês S.; Rosa, Isabel M. D.; Kim, HyeJin; Leadley, Paul; Popp, Alexander; van Vuuren, Detlef P.; Hurtt, George; Quoss, Luise; Arneth, Almut; Baisero, Daniele; Bakkenes, Michel; Chaplin-Kramer, Rebecca; Chini, Louise; Di Marco, Moreno; Ferrier, Simon; Fujimori, Shinichiro; Guerra, Carlos A.; Harfoot, Michael; Harwood, Thomas D.; Hasegawa, Tomoko; Haverd, Vanessa; Havlík, Petr; Hellweg, Stefanie; Hilbers, Jelle P.; Hill, Samantha L. L.; Hirata, Akiko; Hoskins, Andrew J.; Humpenöder, Florian; Janse, Jan H.; Jetz, Walter; Johnson, Justin A.; Krause, Andreas; Leclère, David; Matsui, Tetsuya; Meijer, Johan R.; Merow, Cory; Obersteiner, Michael; Ohashi, Haruka; De Palma, Adriana; Poulter, Benjamin; Purvis, Andy; Quesada, Benjamin; Rondinini, Carlo; Schipper, Aafke M.; Settele, Josef; Sharp, Richard; Stehfest, Elke; Strassburg, Bernardo B. N.; Takahashi, Kiyoshi; Talluto, Matthew V.; Thuiller, Wilfried; Titeux, Nicolas; Visconti, Piero; Ware, Christopher; Wolf, Florian; Alkemade, Rob

doi:10.1126/science.adn3441

Local TagsRelease HistoryDetailsSummary

Global trends and scenarios for terrestrial biodiversity and ecosystem services from 1900 to 2050

Pereira, H. M., Martins, I. S., Rosa, I. M. D., Kim, H., Leadley, P., Popp, A., van Vuuren, D. P., Hurtt, G., Quoss, L., Arneth, A., Baisero, D., Bakkenes, M., Chaplin-Kramer, R., Chini, L., Di Marco, M., Ferrier, S., Fujimori, S., Guerra, C. A., Harfoot, M., Harwood, T. D., Hasegawa, T., Haverd, V., Havlík, P., Hellweg, S., Hilbers, J. P., Hill, S. L. L., Hirata, A., Hoskins, A. J., Humpenöder, F., Janse, J. H., Jetz, W., Johnson, J. A., Krause, A., Leclère, D., Matsui, T., Meijer, J. R., Merow, C., Obersteiner, M., Ohashi, H., De Palma, A., Poulter, B., Purvis, A., Quesada, B., Rondinini, C., Schipper, A. M., Settele, J., Sharp, R., Stehfest, E., Strassburg, B. B. N., Takahashi, K., Talluto, M. V., Thuiller, W., Titeux, N., Visconti, P., Ware, C., Wolf, F., Alkemade, R. (2024): Global trends and scenarios for terrestrial biodiversity and ecosystem services from 1900 to 2050. - Science, 384, 6694, 458-465.
https://doi.org/10.1126/science.adn3441

Item is Released

show all hide all

Basic

show hide

Item Permalink: https://publications.pik-potsdam.de/pubman/item/item_30350 Version Permalink: https://publications.pik-potsdam.de/pubman/item/item_30350_1

Genre: Journal Article

Files

show Files

Locators

show

Creators

show

hide

Creators:
Pereira, Henrique M.¹, Author
Martins, Inês S.¹, Author
Rosa, Isabel M. D.¹, Author
Kim, HyeJin¹, Author
Leadley, Paul¹, Author
Popp, Alexander², Author
van Vuuren, Detlef P.¹, Author
Hurtt, George¹, Author
Quoss, Luise¹, Author
Arneth, Almut¹, Author
Baisero, Daniele¹, Author
Bakkenes, Michel¹, Author
Chaplin-Kramer, Rebecca¹, Author
Chini, Louise¹, Author
Di Marco, Moreno¹, Author
Ferrier, Simon¹, Author
Fujimori, Shinichiro¹, Author
Guerra, Carlos A.¹, Author
Harfoot, Michael¹, Author
Harwood, Thomas D.¹, Author
Hasegawa, Tomoko¹, AuthorHaverd, Vanessa¹, AuthorHavlík, Petr¹, AuthorHellweg, Stefanie¹, AuthorHilbers, Jelle P.¹, AuthorHill, Samantha L. L.¹, AuthorHirata, Akiko¹, AuthorHoskins, Andrew J.¹, AuthorHumpenöder, Florian², Author Janse, Jan H.¹, AuthorJetz, Walter¹, AuthorJohnson, Justin A.¹, AuthorKrause, Andreas¹, AuthorLeclère, David¹, AuthorMatsui, Tetsuya¹, AuthorMeijer, Johan R.¹, AuthorMerow, Cory¹, AuthorObersteiner, Michael¹, AuthorOhashi, Haruka¹, AuthorDe Palma, Adriana¹, AuthorPoulter, Benjamin¹, AuthorPurvis, Andy¹, AuthorQuesada, Benjamin¹, AuthorRondinini, Carlo¹, AuthorSchipper, Aafke M.¹, AuthorSettele, Josef¹, AuthorSharp, Richard¹, AuthorStehfest, Elke¹, AuthorStrassburg, Bernardo B. N.¹, AuthorTakahashi, Kiyoshi¹, AuthorTalluto, Matthew V.¹, AuthorThuiller, Wilfried¹, AuthorTiteux, Nicolas¹, AuthorVisconti, Piero¹, AuthorWare, Christopher¹, AuthorWolf, Florian¹, AuthorAlkemade, Rob¹, Author more..

Affiliations:
1External Organizations, ou_persistent22
2Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research, Potsdam, ou_persistent13

Content

show

hide

Free keywords: -

Abstract: Based on an extensive model intercomparison, we assessed trends in biodiversity and ecosystem services from historical reconstructions and future scenarios of land-use and climate change. During the 20th century, biodiversity declined globally by 2 to 11%, as estimated by a range of indicators. Provisioning ecosystem services increased several fold, and regulating services decreased moderately. Going forward, policies toward sustainability have the potential to slow biodiversity loss resulting from land-use change and the demand for provisioning services while reducing or reversing declines in regulating services. However, negative impacts on biodiversity due to climate change appear poised to increase, particularly in the higher-emissions scenarios. Our assessment identifies remaining modeling uncertainties but also robustly shows that renewed policy efforts are needed to meet the goals of the Convention on Biological Diversity.

Details

show

hide

Language(s): eng - English

Dates: Published Online: 2024-04-25Finally published : 2024-04-25

Publication Status: Finally published

Pages: 8

Publishing info: -

Table of Contents: -

Rev. Type: Peer

Identifiers: DOI: 10.1126/science.adn3441
PIKDOMAIN: RD3 - Transformation Pathways
Organisational keyword: RD3 - Transformation Pathways
Working Group: Land-Use Management
Regional keyword: Global
Research topic keyword: Biodiversity
Research topic keyword: Ecosystems
Research topic keyword: Land use
MDB-ID: No data to archive

Degree: -

Event

show

Legal Case

show

Project information

show

Source 1

show

hide

Title: Science

Source Genre: Journal, SCI, Scopus, p3

Creator(s):

Affiliations:

Publ. Info: -

Pages: - Volume / Issue: 384 (6694) Sequence Number: - Start / End Page: 458 - 465 Identifier: CoNE: https://publications.pik-potsdam.de/cone/journals/resource/journals442
Publisher: American Association for the Advancement of Science (AAAS)