Global trends and scenarios for terrestrial biodiversity and ecosystem services 
from 1900 to 2050

Pereira, Henrique M.; Martins, Inês S.; Rosa, Isabel M. D.; Kim, HyeJin; Leadley, Paul; Popp, Alexander; van Vuuren, Detlef P.; Hurtt, George; Quoss, Luise; Arneth, Almut; Baisero, Daniele; Bakkenes, Michel; Chaplin-Kramer, Rebecca; Chini, Louise; Di Marco, Moreno; Ferrier, Simon; Fujimori, Shinichiro; Guerra, Carlos A.; Harfoot, Michael; Harwood, Thomas D.; Hasegawa, Tomoko; Haverd, Vanessa; Havlík, Petr; Hellweg, Stefanie; Hilbers, Jelle P.; Hill, Samantha L. L.; Hirata, Akiko; Hoskins, Andrew J.; Humpenöder, Florian; Janse, Jan H.; Jetz, Walter; Johnson, Justin A.; Krause, Andreas; Leclère, David; Matsui, Tetsuya; Meijer, Johan R.; Merow, Cory; Obersteiner, Michael; Ohashi, Haruka; De Palma, Adriana; Poulter, Benjamin; Purvis, Andy; Quesada, Benjamin; Rondinini, Carlo; Schipper, Aafke M.; Settele, Josef; Sharp, Richard; Stehfest, Elke; Strassburg, Bernardo B. N.; Takahashi, Kiyoshi; Talluto, Matthew V.; Thuiller, Wilfried; Titeux, Nicolas; Visconti, Piero; Ware, Christopher; Wolf, Florian; Alkemade, Rob

doi:10.1126/science.adn3441

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学術論文

Global trends and scenarios for terrestrial biodiversity and ecosystem services from 1900 to 2050

Authors

Pereira, Henrique M.
External Organizations;

Martins, Inês S.
External Organizations;

Rosa, Isabel M. D.
External Organizations;

Kim, HyeJin
External Organizations;

Leadley, Paul
External Organizations;

/persons/resource/Alexander.Popp

Popp, Alexander
Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research;

van Vuuren, Detlef P.
External Organizations;

Hurtt, George
External Organizations;

Quoss, Luise
External Organizations;

Arneth, Almut
External Organizations;

Baisero, Daniele
External Organizations;

Bakkenes, Michel
External Organizations;

Chaplin-Kramer, Rebecca
External Organizations;

Chini, Louise
External Organizations;

Di Marco, Moreno
External Organizations;

Ferrier, Simon
External Organizations;

Fujimori, Shinichiro
External Organizations;

Guerra, Carlos A.
External Organizations;

Harfoot, Michael
External Organizations;

Harwood, Thomas D.
External Organizations;

Hasegawa, Tomoko
External Organizations;

Haverd, Vanessa
External Organizations;

Havlík, Petr
External Organizations;

Hellweg, Stefanie
External Organizations;

Hilbers, Jelle P.
External Organizations;

Hill, Samantha L. L.
External Organizations;

Hirata, Akiko
External Organizations;

Hoskins, Andrew J.
External Organizations;

/persons/resource/Florian.Humpenoeder

Humpenöder, Florian
Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research;

Janse, Jan H.
External Organizations;

Jetz, Walter
External Organizations;

Johnson, Justin A.
External Organizations;

Krause, Andreas
External Organizations;

Leclère, David
External Organizations;

Matsui, Tetsuya
External Organizations;

Meijer, Johan R.
External Organizations;

Merow, Cory
External Organizations;

Obersteiner, Michael
External Organizations;

Ohashi, Haruka
External Organizations;

De Palma, Adriana
External Organizations;

Poulter, Benjamin
External Organizations;

Purvis, Andy
External Organizations;

Quesada, Benjamin
External Organizations;

Rondinini, Carlo
External Organizations;

Schipper, Aafke M.
External Organizations;

Settele, Josef
External Organizations;

Sharp, Richard
External Organizations;

Stehfest, Elke
External Organizations;

Strassburg, Bernardo B. N.
External Organizations;

Takahashi, Kiyoshi
External Organizations;

Talluto, Matthew V.
External Organizations;

Thuiller, Wilfried
External Organizations;

Titeux, Nicolas
External Organizations;

Visconti, Piero
External Organizations;

Ware, Christopher
External Organizations;

Wolf, Florian
External Organizations;

Alkemade, Rob
External Organizations;

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引用

Pereira, H. M., Martins, I. S., Rosa, I. M. D., Kim, H., Leadley, P., Popp, A., van Vuuren, D. P., Hurtt, G., Quoss, L., Arneth, A., Baisero, D., Bakkenes, M., Chaplin-Kramer, R., Chini, L., Di Marco, M., Ferrier, S., Fujimori, S., Guerra, C. A., Harfoot, M., Harwood, T. D., Hasegawa, T., Haverd, V., Havlík, P., Hellweg, S., Hilbers, J. P., Hill, S. L. L., Hirata, A., Hoskins, A. J., Humpenöder, F., Janse, J. H., Jetz, W., Johnson, J. A., Krause, A., Leclère, D., Matsui, T., Meijer, J. R., Merow, C., Obersteiner, M., Ohashi, H., De Palma, A., Poulter, B., Purvis, A., Quesada, B., Rondinini, C., Schipper, A. M., Settele, J., Sharp, R., Stehfest, E., Strassburg, B. B. N., Takahashi, K., Talluto, M. V., Thuiller, W., Titeux, N., Visconti, P., Ware, C., Wolf, F., & Alkemade, R. (2024). Global trends and scenarios for terrestrial biodiversity and ecosystem services from 1900 to 2050. Science, 384(6694), 458-465. doi:10.1126/science.adn3441.

引用: https://publications.pik-potsdam.de/pubman/item/item_30350

要旨

Based on an extensive model intercomparison, we assessed trends in biodiversity and ecosystem services from historical reconstructions and future scenarios of land-use and climate change. During the 20th century, biodiversity declined globally by 2 to 11%, as estimated by a range of indicators. Provisioning ecosystem services increased several fold, and regulating services decreased moderately. Going forward, policies toward sustainability have the potential to slow biodiversity loss resulting from land-use change and the demand for provisioning services while reducing or reversing declines in regulating services. However, negative impacts on biodiversity due to climate change appear poised to increase, particularly in the higher-emissions scenarios. Our assessment identifies remaining modeling uncertainties but also robustly shows that renewed policy efforts are needed to meet the goals of the Convention on Biological Diversity.