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  Complex networks for tracking extreme rainfall during typhoons

Öztürk, U., Marwan, N., Korup, O., Saito, H., Agarwal, A., Grossman, M. J., Zaiki, M., Kurths, J. (2018): Complex networks for tracking extreme rainfall during typhoons. - Chaos, 28, 7, 075301.
https://doi.org/10.1063/1.5004480

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 Creators:
Öztürk, Ugur1, Author              
Marwan, Norbert1, Author              
Korup, O.2, Author
Saito, H.2, Author
Agarwal, Ankit1, Author              
Grossman, M. J.2, Author
Zaiki, M.2, Author
Kurths, Jürgen1, Author              
Affiliations:
1Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research, ou_persistent13              
2External Organizations, ou_persistent22              

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 Abstract: Reconciling the paths of extreme rainfall with those of typhoons remains difficult despite advanced forecasting techniques. We use complex networks defined by a nonlinear synchronization measure termed event synchronization to track extreme rainfall over the Japanese islands. Directed networks objectively record patterns of heavy rain brought by frontal storms and typhoons but mask out contributions of local convective storms. We propose a radial rank method to show that paths of extreme rainfall in the typhoon season (August-November, ASON) follow the overall southwest-northeast motion of typhoons and mean rainfall gradient of Japan. The associated eye-of-the-typhoon tracks deviate notably and may thus distort estimates of heavy typhoon rainfall. We mainly found that the lower spread of rainfall tracks in ASON may enable better hindcasting than for westerly-fed frontal storms in June and July. Complex network is a special type of graph describing meaningful interactions of real life systems (e.g., social, biological); it is also a popular tool to investigate the spatiotemporal dynamics of climate systems, such as extreme precipitation. Tropical storms incur substantial losses each year, particularly in the western Pacific. Despite many advances in their monitoring and forecasting, the dynamics of extreme rainfall patterns remains partly unresolved. We use complex networks for investigating how extreme rainfall correlates in space and time during the passage of tropical storm over the Japanese archipelago. We found that the rainfall tracks consistently diverge from eye-of-the-typhoon tracks, while the mean difference in track azimuths decreases from frontal storm (June-July) to typhoon seasons (August-November). This outcome might increase the predictability of the extreme precipitation during the typhoon season

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 Dates: 2018
 Publication Status: Finally published
 Pages: -
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 Table of Contents: -
 Rev. Type: Peer
 Identifiers: DOI: 10.1063/1.5004480
PIKDOMAIN: Transdisciplinary Concepts & Methods - Research Domain IV
eDoc: 7902
Research topic keyword: Complex Networks
Research topic keyword: Atmosphere
Research topic keyword: Extremes
Research topic keyword: Weather
Model / method: Nonlinear Data Analysis
Regional keyword: Asia
Organisational keyword: RD4 - Complexity Science
Working Group: Development of advanced time series analysis techniques
Working Group: Network- and machine-learning-based prediction of extreme events
 Degree: -

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Title: Chaos
Source Genre: Journal, SCI, Scopus, p3
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Pages: - Volume / Issue: 28 (7) Sequence Number: 075301 Start / End Page: - Identifier: CoNE: https://publications.pik-potsdam.de/cone/journals/resource/180808