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  Observed fingerprint of a weakening Atlantic Ocean overturning circulation

Caesar, L., Rahmstorf, S., Robinson, A., Feulner, G., Saba, V. (2018): Observed fingerprint of a weakening Atlantic Ocean overturning circulation. - Nature, 556, 7700, 191-196.
https://doi.org/10.1038/s41586-018-0006-5

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 Creators:
Caesar, Levke1, Author              
Rahmstorf, Stefan1, Author              
Robinson, A.1, Author              
Feulner, Georg1, Author              
Saba, V.2, Author
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1Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research, ou_persistent13              
2External Organizations, ou_persistent22              

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 Abstract: The Atlantic meridional overturning circulation (AMOC)—a system of ocean currents in the North Atlantic—has a major impact on climate, yet its evolution during the industrial era is poorly known owing to a lack of direct current measurements. Here we provide evidence for a weakening of the AMOC by about 3 ± 1 sverdrups (around 15 per cent) since the mid-twentieth century. This weakening is revealed by a characteristic spatial and seasonal sea-surface temperature ‘fingerprint’—consisting of a pattern of cooling in the subpolar Atlantic Ocean and warming in the Gulf Stream region—and is calibrated through an ensemble of model simulations from the CMIP5 project. We find this fingerprint both in a high-resolution climate model in response to increasing atmospheric carbon dioxide concentrations, and in the temperature trends observed since the late nineteenth century. The pattern can be explained by a slowdown in the AMOC and reduced northward heat transport, as well as an associated northward shift of the Gulf Stream. Comparisons with recent direct measurements from the RAPID project and several other studies provide a consistent depiction of record-low AMOC values in recent years.

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 Dates: 2018
 Publication Status: Finally published
 Pages: -
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 Rev. Type: Peer
 Identifiers: DOI: 10.1038/s41586-018-0006-5
PIKDOMAIN: Earth System Analysis - Research Domain I
eDoc: 8036
Research topic keyword: Oceans
Research topic keyword: Tipping Elements
Research topic keyword: Climate impacts
Regional keyword: Global
Organisational keyword: RD1 - Earth System Analysis
Working Group: Earth System Model Development
Working Group: Earth System Modes of Operation
 Degree: -

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Title: Nature
Source Genre: Journal, SCI, Scopus, p3
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Pages: - Volume / Issue: 556 (7700) Sequence Number: - Start / End Page: 191 - 196 Identifier: CoNE: https://publications.pik-potsdam.de/cone/journals/resource/journals353
Publisher: Nature