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  Range of 21st century ice mass changes in the Filchner-Ronne region of Antarctica

Johnson, A., Aschwanden, A., Albrecht, T., Hock, R. (2023): Range of 21st century ice mass changes in the Filchner-Ronne region of Antarctica. - Journal of Glaciology, 69, 277, 1203-1213.
https://doi.org/10.1017/jog.2023.10

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Datensatz-Permalink: https://publications.pik-potsdam.de/pubman/item/item_28235 Versions-Permalink: https://publications.pik-potsdam.de/pubman/item/item_28235_4
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 Urheber:
Johnson, Andrew1, Autor
Aschwanden, Andy1, Autor
Albrecht, Torsten2, Autor              
Hock, Regine1, Autor
Affiliations:
1External Organizations, ou_persistent22              
2Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research, Potsdam, ou_persistent13              

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 Zusammenfassung: Increases in ocean temperatures in the Filchner Ronne region of Antarctica are likely to result in increased ice mass loss and sea level rise. We constrain projections of the 21st century sea level contribution of this region using process-based ice-sheet modeling, with model parameters controlling ice dynamics calibrated using observed surface speeds and Markov-chain Monte Carlo sampling. We use climate forcing from Representative Concentration Pathway (RCP) scenarios as well as a set of hypothetical scenarios of deep ocean warming to evaluate the sensitivity of this region to ocean temperatures. Projected changes in regional ice mass correspond to a decrease in global mean sea level of 24±7 mm over 2015–2100 under RCP 2.6 and 28±9 mm under RCP 8.5. Increased regional inland surface accumulation related to higher warming levels in RCP 8.5 leads to more ice above flotation, offsetting increased ice shelf basal melt. The tests involving step changes in ocean temperatures with constant surface forcing show that one degree of ocean warming from present results in an additional +11 mm contribution to sea level by 2100 and 1% of the ice-covered area in the domain becomes ungrounded (23 200 km2). The rate of mass loss with temperature increases at higher temperatures.

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Sprache(n): eng - Englisch
 Datum: 2023-03-012023-03-202023-10-01
 Publikationsstatus: Final veröffentlicht
 Seiten: 11
 Ort, Verlag, Ausgabe: -
 Inhaltsverzeichnis: -
 Art der Begutachtung: Expertenbegutachtung
 Identifikatoren: DOI: 10.1017/jog.2023.10
PIKDOMAIN: RD1 - Earth System Analysis
Organisational keyword: RD1 - Earth System Analysis
Organisational keyword: FutureLab - Earth Resilience in the Anthropocene
Working Group: Ice Dynamics
Research topic keyword: Ice
Research topic keyword: Sea-level Rise
Regional keyword: Arctic & Antarctica
Model / method: PISM-PIK
MDB-ID: yes - 3425
OATYPE: Hybrid Open Access
 Art des Abschluß: -

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Titel: Journal of Glaciology
Genre der Quelle: Zeitschrift, SCI, Scopus, p3, oa
 Urheber:
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Ort, Verlag, Ausgabe: -
Seiten: - Band / Heft: 69 (277) Artikelnummer: - Start- / Endseite: 1203 - 1213 Identifikator: CoNE: https://publications.pik-potsdam.de/cone/journals/resource/journals271
Publisher: Cambridge University Press