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  Large potential for crop production adaptation depends on available future varieties

Zabel, F., Müller, C., Elliott, J., Minoli, S., Jägermeyr, J., Schneider, J. M., Franke, J. A., Moyer, E., Dury, M., Francois, L., Folberth, C., Liu, W., Pugh, T. A., Olin, S., Rabin, S. S., Mauser, W., Hank, T., Ruane, A. C., Asseng, S. (2021): Large potential for crop production adaptation depends on available future varieties. - Global Change Biology, 27, 16, 3870-3882.
https://doi.org/10.1111/gcb.15649

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 Creators:
Zabel, Florian1, Author
Müller, Christoph2, Author              
Elliott, Joshua1, Author
Minoli, Sara2, Author              
Jägermeyr, Jonas2, Author              
Schneider, Julia M.1, Author
Franke, James A.1, Author
Moyer, Elisabeth1, Author
Dury, Marie1, Author
Francois, Luis1, Author
Folberth, Christian1, Author
Liu, Wenfeng1, Author
Pugh, Thomas A.M.1, Author
Olin, Stefan1, Author
Rabin, Sam S.1, Author
Mauser, Wolfram1, Author
Hank, Tobias1, Author
Ruane, Alex C.1, Author
Asseng, Senthold1, Author
Affiliations:
1External Organizations, ou_persistent22              
2Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research, ou_persistent13              

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 Abstract: Climate change affects global agricultural production and threatens food security. Faster phenological development of crops due to climate warming is one of the main drivers for potential future yield reductions. To counter the effect of faster maturity, adapted varieties would require more heat units to regain the previous growing period length. In this study, we investigate the effects of variety adaptation on global caloric production under four different future climate change scenarios for maize, rice, soybean, and wheat. Thereby, we empirically identify areas that could require new varieties and areas where variety adaptation could be achieved by shifting existing varieties into new regions. The study uses an ensemble of seven global gridded crop models and five CMIP6 climate models. We found that 39% (SSP5-8.5) of global cropland could require new crop varieties to avoid yield loss from climate change by the end of the century. At low levels of warming (SSP1-2.6), 85% of currently cultivated land can draw from existing varieties to shift within an agro-ecological zone for adaptation. The assumptions on available varieties for adaptation have major impacts on the effectiveness of variety adaptation, which could more than half in SSP5-8.5. The results highlight that region-specific breeding efforts are required to allow for a successful adaptation to climate change.

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Language(s): eng - English
 Dates: 2021-04-082021-05-172021-08
 Publication Status: Finally published
 Pages: 13
 Publishing info: -
 Table of Contents: -
 Rev. Type: Peer
 Identifiers: MDB-ID: yes - 3167
PIKDOMAIN: RD2 - Climate Resilience
Working Group: Land Use and Resilience
Organisational keyword: RD2 - Climate Resilience
Research topic keyword: Adaptation
Research topic keyword: Climate impacts
Research topic keyword: Food & Agriculture
Regional keyword: Global
Model / method: LPJmL
DOI: 10.1111/gcb.15649
OATYPE: Hybrid Open Access
 Degree: -

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Title: Global Change Biology
Source Genre: Journal, SCI, Scopus, p3
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Pages: - Volume / Issue: 27 (16) Sequence Number: - Start / End Page: 3870 - 3882 Identifier: CoNE: https://publications.pik-potsdam.de/cone/journals/resource/journals192
Publisher: Wiley