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  Afforestation to mitigate climate change: impacts on food prices under consideration of albedo effects

Kreidenweis, U., Humpenöder, F., Stevanović, M., Bodirsky, B. L., Kriegler, E., Lotze-Campen, H., Popp, A. (2016): Afforestation to mitigate climate change: impacts on food prices under consideration of albedo effects. - Environmental Research Letters, 11, 8, 085001.
https://doi.org/10.1088/1748-9326/11/8/085001

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 Creators:
Kreidenweis, Ulrich1, Author              
Humpenöder, Florian1, Author              
Stevanović, Miodrag1, Author              
Bodirsky, Benjamin Leon1, Author              
Kriegler, Elmar1, Author              
Lotze-Campen, Hermann1, Author              
Popp, Alexander1, Author              
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1Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research, ou_persistent13              

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 Abstract: Ambitious climate targets, such as the 2 °C target, are likely to require the removal of carbon dioxide from the atmosphere. Afforestation is one such mitigation option but could, through the competition for land, also lead to food prices hikes. In addition, afforestation often decreases land-surface albedo and the amount of short-wave radiation reflected back to space, which results in a warming effect. In particular in the boreal zone, such biophysical warming effects following from afforestation are estimated to offset the cooling effect from carbon sequestration. We assessed the food price response of afforestation, and considered the albedo effect with scenarios in which afforestation was restricted to certain latitudinal zones. In our study, afforestation was incentivized by a globally uniform reward for carbon uptake in the terrestrial biosphere. This resulted in large-scale afforestation (2580 Mha globally) and substantial carbon sequestration (860 GtCO2) up to the end of the century. However, it was also associated with an increase in food prices of about 80% by 2050 and a more than fourfold increase by 2100. When afforestation was restricted to the tropics the food price response was substantially reduced, while still almost 60% cumulative carbon sequestration was achieved. In the medium term, the increase in prices was then lower than the increase in income underlying our scenario projections. Moreover, our results indicate that more liberalised trade in agricultural commodities could buffer the food price increases following from afforestation in tropical regions.

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 Dates: 2016
 Publication Status: Finally published
 Pages: -
 Publishing info: -
 Table of Contents: -
 Rev. Type: Peer
 Identifiers: DOI: 10.1088/1748-9326/11/8/085001
PIKDOMAIN: Climate Impacts & Vulnerabilities - Research Domain II
PIKDOMAIN: Sustainable Solutions - Research Domain III
eDoc: 7256
Research topic keyword: CO2 Removal
Research topic keyword: Land use
Research topic keyword: Mitigation
Research topic keyword: Sustainable Development
Research topic keyword: Food & Agriculture
Model / method: MAgPIE
Regional keyword: Global
Organisational keyword: RD3 - Transformation Pathways
Organisational keyword: RD2 - Climate Resilience
Working Group: Land Use and Resilience
Working Group: Land-Use Management
 Degree: -

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Title: Environmental Research Letters
Source Genre: Journal, SCI, Scopus, p3, oa
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Pages: - Volume / Issue: 11 (8) Sequence Number: 085001 Start / End Page: - Identifier: CoNE: https://publications.pik-potsdam.de/cone/journals/resource/150326