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  Fossil-fueled development (SSP5): An energy and resource intensive scenario for the 21st century

Kriegler, E., Bauer, N., Popp, A., Humpenöder, F., Leimbach, M., Strefler, J., Baumstark, L., Bodirsky, B. L., Hilaire, J., Klein, D., Mouratiadou, I., Weindl, I., Bertram, C., Dietrich, J. P., Luderer, G., Pehl, M., Pietzcker, R. C., Piontek, F., Lotze-Campen, H., Biewald, A., Bonsch, M., Giannousakis, A., Kreidenweis, U., Müller, C., Rolinski, S., Schultes, A., Schwanitz, J., Stevanović, M., Calvin, K., Emmerling, J., Fujimori, S., & Edenhofer, O. (2017). Fossil-fueled development (SSP5): An energy and resource intensive scenario for the 21st century. Global Environmental Change, 42, 297-315. doi:10.1016/j.gloenvcha.2016.05.015.

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資料種別: 学術論文

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 作成者:
Kriegler, Elmar1, 著者              
Bauer, Nicolas1, 著者              
Popp, Alexander1, 著者              
Humpenöder, Florian1, 著者              
Leimbach, Marian1, 著者              
Strefler, Jessica1, 著者              
Baumstark, Lavinia1, 著者              
Bodirsky, Benjamin Leon1, 著者              
Hilaire, Jérôme1, 著者              
Klein, David1, 著者              
Mouratiadou, Ioanna1, 著者              
Weindl, Isabelle1, 著者              
Bertram, Christoph1, 著者              
Dietrich, Jan Philipp1, 著者              
Luderer, Gunnar1, 著者              
Pehl, Michaja1, 著者              
Pietzcker, Robert C.1, 著者              
Piontek, Franziska1, 著者              
Lotze-Campen, Hermann1, 著者              
Biewald, Anne1, 著者              
Bonsch, Markus1, 著者              Giannousakis, Anastasis1, 著者              Kreidenweis, Ulrich1, 著者              Müller, Christoph1, 著者              Rolinski, Susanne1, 著者              Schultes, Anselm1, 著者              Schwanitz, Jana1, 著者              Stevanović, Miodrag1, 著者              Calvin, Katherine2, 著者Emmerling, Johannes2, 著者Fujimori, Shinichiro2, 著者Edenhofer, Ottmar1, 著者               全て表示
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1Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research, ou_persistent13              
2External Organizations, ou_persistent22              

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 要旨: This paper presents a set of energy and resource intensive scenarios based on the concept of Shared Socio-Economic Pathways (SSPs). The scenario family is characterized by rapid and fossil-fueled development with high socio-economic challenges to mitigation and low socio-economic challenges to adaptation (SSP5). A special focus is placed on the SSP5 marker scenario developed by the REMIND-MAgPIE integrated assessment modeling framework. The SSP5 baseline scenarios exhibit very high levels of fossil fuel use, up to a doubling of global food demand, and up to a tripling of energy demand and greenhouse gas emissions over the course of the century, marking the upper end of the scenario literature in several dimensions. These scenarios are currently the only SSP scenarios that result in a radiative forcing pathway as high as the highest Representative Concentration Pathway (RCP8.5). This paper further investigates the direct impact of mitigation policies on the SSP5 energy, land and emissions dynamics confirming high socio-economic challenges to mitigation in SSP5. Nonetheless, mitigation policies reaching climate forcing levels as low as in the lowest Representative Concentration Pathway (RCP2.6) are accessible in SSP5. The SSP5 scenarios presented in this paper aim to provide useful reference points for future climate change, climate impact, adaption and mitigation analysis, and broader questions of sustainable development.

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 日付: 2017
 出版の状態: Finally published
 ページ: -
 出版情報: -
 目次: -
 査読: 査読あり
 識別子(DOI, ISBNなど): DOI: 10.1016/j.gloenvcha.2016.05.015
PIKDOMAIN: Sustainable Solutions - Research Domain III
PIKDOMAIN: Climate Impacts & Vulnerabilities - Research Domain II
eDoc: 7239
Research topic keyword: Mitigation
Model / method: REMIND
Model / method: MAgPIE
Regional keyword: Global
Organisational keyword: RD3 - Transformation Pathways
Organisational keyword: RD2 - Climate Resilience
Working Group: Land Use and Resilience
Working Group: Energy Systems
Working Group: Macroeconomic modeling of climate change mitigation and impacts
Working Group: Research Software Engineering for Transformation Pathways
Working Group: Land-Use Management
PIKDOMAIN: RD5 - Climate Economics and Policy - MCC Berlin
Organisational keyword: RD5 - Climate Economics and Policy - MCC Berlin
Working Group: Evidence for Climate Solutions
 学位: -

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出版物 1

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出版物名: Global Environmental Change
種別: 学術雑誌, SCI, Scopus, p3
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出版社, 出版地: -
ページ: - 巻号: 42 通巻号: - 開始・終了ページ: 297 - 315 識別子(ISBN, ISSN, DOIなど): CoNE: https://publications.pik-potsdam.de/cone/journals/resource/journals193