Fossil-fueled development (SSP5): An energy and resource intensive scenario for 
the 21st century

Kriegler, Elmar; Bauer, Nicolas; Popp, Alexander; Humpenöder, Florian; Leimbach, Marian; Strefler, Jessica; Baumstark, Lavinia; Bodirsky, Benjamin Leon; Hilaire, Jérôme; Klein, David; Mouratiadou, Ioanna; Weindl, Isabelle; Bertram, Christoph; Dietrich, Jan Philipp; Luderer, Gunnar; Pehl, Michaja; Pietzcker, Robert C.; Piontek, Franziska; Lotze-Campen, Hermann; Biewald, Anne; Bonsch, Markus; Giannousakis, Anastasis; Kreidenweis, Ulrich; Müller, Christoph; Rolinski, Susanne; Schultes, Anselm; Schwanitz, Jana; Stevanović, Miodrag; Calvin, Katherine; Emmerling, Johannes; Fujimori, Shinichiro; Edenhofer, Ottmar

doi:10.1016/j.gloenvcha.2016.05.015

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Journal Article

Fossil-fueled development (SSP5): An energy and resource intensive scenario for the 21st century

Authors

/persons/resource/Elmar.Kriegler

Kriegler, Elmar
Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research;

/persons/resource/Nicolas.Bauer

Bauer, Nicolas
Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research;

/persons/resource/Alexander.Popp

Popp, Alexander
Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research;

/persons/resource/Florian.Humpenoeder

Humpenöder, Florian
Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research;

/persons/resource/marian.leimbach

Leimbach, Marian
Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research;

/persons/resource/Jessica.Strefler

Strefler, Jessica
Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research;

/persons/resource/lavinia.baumstark

Baumstark, Lavinia
Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research;

/persons/resource/Bodirsky

Bodirsky, Benjamin Leon
Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research;

/persons/resource/hilaire

Hilaire, Jérôme
Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research;

/persons/resource/david.klein

Klein, David
Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research;

/persons/resource/ioanna.mouratiadou

Mouratiadou, Ioanna
Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research;

/persons/resource/Isabelle.Weindl

Weindl, Isabelle
Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research;

/persons/resource/Bertram

Bertram, Christoph
Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research;

/persons/resource/Jan.Dietrich

Dietrich, Jan Philipp
Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research;

/persons/resource/Gunnar.Luderer

Luderer, Gunnar
Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research;

/persons/resource/michaja.pehl

Pehl, Michaja
Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research;

/persons/resource/Robert.Pietzcker

Pietzcker, Robert C.
Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research;

/persons/resource/franziska.piontek

Piontek, Franziska
Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research;

/persons/resource/Lotze-Campen

Lotze-Campen, Hermann
Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research;

/persons/resource/anne.biewald

Biewald, Anne
Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research;

/persons/resource/markus.bonsch

Bonsch, Markus
Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research;

/persons/resource/giannou

Giannousakis, Anastasis
Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research;

/persons/resource/ulrich.kreidenweis

Kreidenweis, Ulrich
Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research;

/persons/resource/Christoph.Mueller

Müller, Christoph
Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research;

/persons/resource/Rolinski

Rolinski, Susanne
Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research;

/persons/resource/anselm.schultes

Schultes, Anselm
Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research;

/persons/resource/jana.schwanitz

Schwanitz, Jana
Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research;

/persons/resource/stevanovic

Stevanović, Miodrag
Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research;

Calvin, Katherine
External Organizations;

Emmerling, Johannes
External Organizations;

Fujimori, Shinichiro
External Organizations;

/persons/resource/Ottmar.Edenhofer

Edenhofer, Ottmar
Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research;

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No external resources are shared

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Citation

Kriegler, E., Bauer, N., Popp, A., Humpenöder, F., Leimbach, M., Strefler, J., Baumstark, L., Bodirsky, B. L., Hilaire, J., Klein, D., Mouratiadou, I., Weindl, I., Bertram, C., Dietrich, J. P., Luderer, G., Pehl, M., Pietzcker, R. C., Piontek, F., Lotze-Campen, H., Biewald, A., Bonsch, M., Giannousakis, A., Kreidenweis, U., Müller, C., Rolinski, S., Schultes, A., Schwanitz, J., Stevanović, M., Calvin, K., Emmerling, J., Fujimori, S., Edenhofer, O. (2017): Fossil-fueled development (SSP5): An energy and resource intensive scenario for the 21st century. - Global Environmental Change, 42, 297-315.
https://doi.org/10.1016/j.gloenvcha.2016.05.015

Cite as: https://publications.pik-potsdam.de/pubman/item/item_20984

Abstract

This paper presents a set of energy and resource intensive scenarios based on the concept of Shared Socio-Economic Pathways (SSPs). The scenario family is characterized by rapid and fossil-fueled development with high socio-economic challenges to mitigation and low socio-economic challenges to adaptation (SSP5). A special focus is placed on the SSP5 marker scenario developed by the REMIND-MAgPIE integrated assessment modeling framework. The SSP5 baseline scenarios exhibit very high levels of fossil fuel use, up to a doubling of global food demand, and up to a tripling of energy demand and greenhouse gas emissions over the course of the century, marking the upper end of the scenario literature in several dimensions. These scenarios are currently the only SSP scenarios that result in a radiative forcing pathway as high as the highest Representative Concentration Pathway (RCP8.5). This paper further investigates the direct impact of mitigation policies on the SSP5 energy, land and emissions dynamics confirming high socio-economic challenges to mitigation in SSP5. Nonetheless, mitigation policies reaching climate forcing levels as low as in the lowest Representative Concentration Pathway (RCP2.6) are accessible in SSP5. The SSP5 scenarios presented in this paper aim to provide useful reference points for future climate change, climate impact, adaption and mitigation analysis, and broader questions of sustainable development.