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  Human displacements from Tropical Cyclone Idai attributable to climate change

Mester, B., Vogt, T., Bryant, S., Otto, C., Frieler, K., Schewe, J. (2023): Human displacements from Tropical Cyclone Idai attributable to climate change. - Natural Hazards and Earth System Sciences, 23, 11, 3467-3485.
https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-23-3467-2023

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https://doi.org/10.5281/zenodo.10038190 (Supplementary material)
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Data collection for the study "Human displacements from Tropical Cyclone Idai attributable to climate change"

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 Creators:
Mester, Benedikt1, Author              
Vogt, Thomas1, Author              
Bryant, Seth2, Author
Otto, Christian1, Author              
Frieler, Katja1, Author              
Schewe, Jacob1, Author              
Affiliations:
1Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research, ou_persistent13              
2External Organizations, ou_persistent22              

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 Abstract: Extreme weather events, such as tropical cyclones, often trigger population displacement. The frequency and intensity of tropical cyclones are affected by anthropogenic climate change. However, the effect of historical climate change on displacement risk has so far not been quantified. Here, we show how displacement can be partially attributed to climate change using the example of the 2019 Tropical Cyclone Idai in Mozambique. We estimate the population exposed to high water levels following Idai's landfall using a combination of a 2D hydrodynamical storm surge model and a flood depth estimation algorithm to determine inland flood depths from remote sensing images, factual (climate change) and counterfactual (no climate change) mean sea level, and maximum wind speed conditions. Our main estimates indicate that climate change has increased displacement risk from this event by approximately 12 600–14 900 additional displaced persons, corresponding to about 2.7 % to 3.2 % of the observed displacements. The isolated effect of wind speed intensification is double that of sea level rise. These results are subject to important uncertainties related to both data and modeling assumptions, and we perform multiple sensitivity experiments to assess the range of uncertainty where possible. Besides highlighting the significant effects on humanitarian conditions already imparted by climate change, our study provides a blueprint for event-based displacement attribution.

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Language(s): eng - English
 Dates: 2022-11-212023-09-052023-11-142023-11-14
 Publication Status: Finally published
 Pages: 19
 Publishing info: -
 Table of Contents: -
 Rev. Type: Peer
 Identifiers: DOI: 10.5194/nhess-23-3467-2023
MDB-ID: No MDB - stored outside PIK (see DOI)
Organisational keyword: RD3 - Transformation Pathways
PIKDOMAIN: RD3 - Transformation Pathways
Working Group: Event-based modeling of economic impacts of climate change
Regional keyword: Asia
Model / method: Quantitative Methods
Research topic keyword: Mitigation
Research topic keyword: Climate impacts
Research topic keyword: Weather
OATYPE: Gold Open Access
 Degree: -

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Project name : RECEIPT
Grant ID : 820712
Funding program : Horizon 2020 (H2020)
Funding organization : European Commission (EC)

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Title: Natural Hazards and Earth System Sciences
Source Genre: Journal, SCI, Scopus, p3, oa
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Pages: - Volume / Issue: 23 (11) Sequence Number: - Start / End Page: 3467 - 3485 Identifier: CoNE: https://publications.pik-potsdam.de/cone/journals/resource/journals352
Publisher: Copernicus