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  Propagation pathways of Indo-Pacific rainfall extremes are modulated by Pacific sea surface temperatures

Strnad, F., Schlör, J., Geen, R., Boers, N., Goswami, B. (2023): Propagation pathways of Indo-Pacific rainfall extremes are modulated by Pacific sea surface temperatures. - Nature Communications, 14, 5708.
https://doi.org/10.1038/s41467-023-41400-9

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 Creators:
Strnad, Felix1, Author
Schlör, Jakob 1, Author
Geen, Ruth 1, Author
Boers, Niklas2, Author              
Goswami, Bedartha1, Author
Affiliations:
1External Organizations, ou_persistent22              
2Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research, ou_persistent13              

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 Abstract: Intraseasonal variation of rainfall extremes within boreal summer in the Indo-Pacific region is driven by the Boreal Summer Intraseasonal Oscillation (BSISO), a quasi-periodic north-eastward movement of convective precipitation from the Indian Ocean to the Western Pacific. Predicting the spatiotemporal location of the BSISO is essential for subseasonal prediction of rainfall extremes but still remains a major challenge due to insufficient understanding of its propagation pathway. Here, using unsupervised machine learning, we characterize how rainfall extremes travel within the region and reveal three distinct propagation modes: north-eastward, eastward-blocked, and quasi-stationary. We show that Pacific sea surface temperatures modulate BSISO propagation — with El Niño-like (La Niña-like) conditions favoring quasi-stationary (eastward-blocked) modes—by changing the background moist static energy via local overturning circulations. Finally, we demonstrate the potential for early warning of rainfall extremes in the region up to four weeks in advance.

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Language(s): eng - English
 Dates: 2023-09-012023-09-152023-09-15
 Publication Status: Finally published
 Pages: 16
 Publishing info: -
 Table of Contents: -
 Rev. Type: Peer
 Identifiers: DOI: 10.1038/s41467-023-41400-9
MDB-ID: No data to archive
Organisational keyword: FutureLab - Artificial Intelligence in the Anthropocene
PIKDOMAIN: RD4 - Complexity Science
Research topic keyword: Extremes
Model / method: Nonlinear Data Analysis
OATYPE: Gold Open Access
 Degree: -

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Title: Nature Communications
Source Genre: Journal, SCI, Scopus, p3, oa
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Pages: - Volume / Issue: 14 Sequence Number: 5708 Start / End Page: - Identifier: CoNE: https://publications.pik-potsdam.de/cone/journals/resource/journals354
Publisher: Nature