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  Climate risk analysis for adaptation planning in Madagascar's agricultural sector

Cronauer, C. C., Weituschat, C. S., Hampf, A., Undorf, S., Gleixner, S., Waid, J. L., Murken, L. (2024): Climate risk analysis for adaptation planning in Madagascar's agricultural sector, Potsdam : A report prepared by the Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research (PIK) in cooperation with the Deutsche Gesellschaft für Internationale Zusammenarbeit (GIZ) GmbH on behalf of the German Federal Ministry for Economic Cooperation and Development (BMZ), 30 p.
https://doi.org/10.48485/pik.2024.005

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Other : Analyse des risques climatiques pour la planification de l’adaptation au changement climatique dans le secteur agricole à Madagascar

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 Creators:
Cronauer, Carla Catarina1, Author              
Weituschat, Chiara Sophia1, Author              
Hampf, Anna1, Author              
Undorf, Sabine1, Author              
Gleixner, Stephanie1, Author              
Waid, Jillian Lee1, Author              
Murken, Lisa1, Author              
Affiliations:
1Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research, ou_persistent13              

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Free keywords: climate change adaptation, climate impacts, climate risk, agriculture, coffee, vanilla, pepper, peanut, Madagascar, crop modelling, suitability modelling
 Abstract: Madagascar has a high socio-economic dependency on agriculture, a sector which is strongly influenced by weather-related factors and increasingly challenged by the impacts of climate change. Currently, only limited information on climate risks and its impacts is available for the country’s agricultural sector. This study aims to provide a comprehensive climate risk analysis including a thorough evaluation of two potential adaptation strategies that can guide local decision-makers on adaptation planning and implementation in Madagascar. The impact assessment consists of several steps, including climate projections based on three emissions scenarios (SSP1-RCP2.6, SSP3- RCP7.0 and SSP5-RCP8.5 scenario), modelling and comparison of future suitability and yield of three widely used crops (coffee, vanilla, pepper) and an assessment of yield changes in peanut production under future climate conditions. Further, the study outlines gendered challenges and support requirements in national adaptation planning. The simulation results show that Robusta coffee is less sensitive to heat compared to Arabica coffee. The suitable area for Robusta coffee remains almost stable under changing climate conditions, while the suitability of Arabica coffee is projected decrease by 7 % on a national level. Simulation results indicate a slight increase in suitability for vanilla production, particularly in the main growing region Sava, but also in Atsimo Atsinanana, thus safeguarding an important source of income for local farmers and guaranteeing the sustainability of Madagascar´s most valuable export product. Furthermore, climate change is projected to have a rather low impact on the agro-climatic suitability of pepper production. When averaged across Madagascar, the decrease in suitability is less than 1 %, however, there are some noteworthy differences across regions and scenarios. The results for the process-based peanut modelling show that rising temperature and reduced rainfall amounts are likely to decrease peanut yields across Madagascar. However, elevated atmospheric CO2 is projected to offset these negative impacts. The study furthermore evaluated the efficiency of two adaptation strategies, namely the use of locally adapted crop varieties and flexible planting dates. The simulation results suggest that the traditional cultivar Kanety is more suited in future climate change scenarios since yields for Kanety are generally higher than those of the improved variety Fleur 11. Interestingly, opting for flexible planting dates as opposed to a fixed planting date does not result in enhanced yields. This result underlines the importance of regional crop calendars to determine optimal sowing dates. The findings of this study can help to inform national and local adaptation and agricultural development planning and investments in order to strengthen the resilience of the agricultural sector and especially of smallholder farmers against a changing climate in Madagascar.

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Language(s): eng - English, fra - French
 Dates: 2024-012024-01
 Publication Status: Finally published
 Pages: 30
 Publishing info: Potsdam : A report prepared by the Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research (PIK) in cooperation with the Deutsche Gesellschaft für Internationale Zusammenarbeit (GIZ) GmbH on behalf of the German Federal Ministry for Economic Cooperation and Development (BMZ)
 Table of Contents: -
 Rev. Type: -
 Identifiers: PIKDOMAIN: RD2 - Climate Resilience
MDB-ID: No data to archive
Organisational keyword: RD2 - Climate Resilience
DOI: 10.48485/pik.2024.005
 Degree: -

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