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  Ripple resonance amplifies economic welfare loss from weather extremes

Kuhla, K., Willner, S., Otto, C., Geiger, T., Levermann, A. (2021): Ripple resonance amplifies economic welfare loss from weather extremes. - Environmental Research Letters, 16, 11, 114010.
https://doi.org/10.1088/1748-9326/ac2932

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Item Permalink: https://publications.pik-potsdam.de/pubman/item/item_26040 Version Permalink: https://publications.pik-potsdam.de/pubman/item/item_26040_3
Genre: Journal Article

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 Creators:
Kuhla, Kilian1, Author              
Willner, Sven1, Author              
Otto, Christian1, Author              
Geiger, Tobias1, Author              
Levermann, Anders1, Author              
Affiliations:
1Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research, ou_persistent13              

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Free keywords: consecutive disasters, economic ripple resonance, repercussion resonance, weather extremes, supply network, climate impacts, climate change
 Abstract: The most complex but potentially most severe impacts of climate change are caused by extreme weather events. In a globally connected economy, damages can cause remote perturbations and cascading consequences—a ripple effect along supply chains. Here we show an economic ripple resonance that amplifies losses when consecutive or overlapping weather extremes and their repercussions interact. This amounts to an average amplification of 21% for climate-induced heat stress, river floods, and tropical cyclones. Modeling the temporal evolution of 1.8 million trade relations between $\gt$7000 regional economic sectors, we find that the regional responses to future extremes are strongly heterogeneous also in their resonance behavior. The induced effect on welfare varies between gains due to increased demand in some regions and losses due to demand or supply shortages in others. Within the current global supply network, the ripple resonance effect of extreme weather is strongest in high-income economies—an important effect to consider when evaluating past and future economic climate impacts.

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Language(s): eng - English
 Dates: 2021-09-202021-08-132021-09-222021-10-272021-10-27
 Publication Status: Finally published
 Pages: -
 Publishing info: -
 Table of Contents: -
 Rev. Type: Peer
 Identifiers: Organisational keyword: RD4 - Complexity Science
PIKDOMAIN: RD4 - Complexity Science
Working Group: Numerical analysis of global economic impacts
Research topic keyword: Climate impacts
Research topic keyword: Complex Networks
Research topic keyword: Nonlinear Dynamics
Research topic keyword: Weather
Research topic keyword: Extremes
Regional keyword: Global
Model / method: Acclimate
MDB-ID: yes - 3232
OATYPE: Gold Open Access
DOI: 10.1088/1748-9326/ac2932
 Degree: -

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Project name : Climate Impact Chains in a Globalized World: a Challenge for Germany (CLIC) Klima-Wirkungsketten in einer globalisierten Welt: eine Herausforderung für Deutschland (CLIC)
Grant ID : 01LA1817C
Funding program : Ökonomie des Klimawandels
Funding organization : BMBF
Project name : Quantifying direct and indirect costs of climate-related hazards (QUIDIC)
Grant ID : 01LP1907A
Funding program : Ökonomie des Klimawandels
Funding organization : BMBF
Project name : Kurz- und Langzeitfolgen von Klimaextremen (SLICE) - Teilprojekt Beurteilung von Klimafolgen,ökonomische Modellierung und Projektkoordination
Grant ID : 01LA1829A
Funding program : Ökonomie des Klimawandels
Funding organization : BMBF
Project name : -
Grant ID : 820712
Funding program : Horizon 2020 Framework Programme (H2020)
Funding organization : European Commission (EC)
Project name : ENGAGE
Grant ID : SAW-2016-PIK-1
Funding program : -
Funding organization : Leibniz foundation

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Title: Environmental Research Letters
Source Genre: Journal, SCI, Scopus, p3, oa
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Publ. Info: -
Pages: - Volume / Issue: 16 (11) Sequence Number: 114010 Start / End Page: - Identifier: CoNE: https://publications.pik-potsdam.de/cone/journals/resource/150326
Publisher: IOP Publishing