Privacy Policy Disclaimer
  Advanced SearchBrowse


  Climate risk analysis for adaptation planning in Cameroon's agricultural sector

Gloy, N., Kephe, P., Jansen, L., Ostberg, S., Kaufmann, J., Staubach, L., Tchindjang, M., Romanovska, P., Vetter, R., Tomalka, J., Kagonbé, T., Anaba, M., Zouh, I., Amougou, J. A., Cronauer, C. C., Gornott, C. (2023): Climate risk analysis for adaptation planning in Cameroon's agricultural sector, Potsdam : A report prepared by the Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research (PIK) in cooperation with the Deutsche Gesellschaft für Internationale Zusammenarbeit (GIZ) GmbH on behalf of the German Federal Ministry for Economic Cooperation and Development (BMZ), 70 p.

Item is


show Files
hide Files
PIK_CRA_Cameroon_EN.pdf (Publisher version), 13MB
MIME-Type / Checksum:
application/pdf / [MD5]
Technical Metadata:
Copyright Date:
Copyright Info:




Gloy, Nele1, Author              
Kephe, Priscilla1, Author              
Jansen, Lennart2, Author
Ostberg, Sebastian1, Author              
Kaufmann, Juliane2, Author
Staubach, Lina2, Author
Tchindjang, Mesmin2, Author
Romanovska, Paula1, Author              
Vetter, Regina2, Author
Tomalka, Julia2, Author
Kagonbé, Timothée2, Author
Anaba, Muriel2, Author
Zouh, Isabella2, Author
Amougou, Joseph A.2, Author
Cronauer, Carla Catarina1, Author              
Gornott, Christoph1, Author              
1Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research, ou_persistent13              
2External Organizations, ou_persistent22              


Free keywords: climate change adaptation climate impacts climate risk agriculture maize cacao cassava livestock Cameroon biophysical modelling cost-benefit analysis gender
 Abstract: Cameroon has a high socio-economic dependency on agriculture, a sector which is strongly influenced by weather-related factors and increasingly challenged by the impacts of climate change. Currently, only limited information on climate risks and its impacts is available for the agricultural sector in the country. Therefore, this study aims to provide a comprehensive climate risk analysis including a thorough evaluation of three potential adaptation strategies that can guide local decision makers on adaptation planning and implementation in Cameroon. The impact assessment consists of several steps including climate projections based on two emissions scenarios (SSP3-RCP7.0 and SSP1-RCP2.6), assessing land cover changes, modelling and comparing future suitability and yield of three widely used crops (maize, cassava and cocoa) and an assessment of grassland productivity under future climate conditions. Further the study outlines gender-related challenges and opportunities in national adaptation planning. Based on the projected climate change impacts on agricultural production, three different adaptation strategies ((1) Improved varieties, (2) Integrated soil fertility management (ISFM) and (3) Agroforestry), that were suggested and selected by different national stakeholders, were analysed regarding their potential to risk mitigation, (cost-) effectiveness and suitability for local conditions. The analyses have been further complemented by expert- and literaturebased assessments, semi-structured key informant interviews and two stakeholder workshops. The results show, that by 2050 mean annual temperature is projected to increase by 1.1 °C under the low emissions scenario and 1.5 °C under the high emissions scenario compared to 2004. Some uncertainty exists for annual precipitation projections, the model ensemble projects an increase in precipitation, which is stronger under the high emissions scenario while also projecting an increase in precipitation intensity. Projected impacts of climate change on agricultural yields vary between regions and show partly opposing trends. Maize yields will decrease in the Sudano-Sahelian Zone by up to 84 % by 2090 under SSP3-RCP7.0 and over 30 % of yield losses for cassava are projected for AEZ I and II by the end of the century under the SSP3-RCP7.0 scenario. Significant positive cassava yield effects are projected in the (Guinean) High Savannah Zone, High Plateau (Western Highlands), and humid Mono- and Bimodal (Rain)forest Zones, respectively, under SSP1-RCP2.6. Crop models show that the areas suitable for maize and cocoa will decrease in Cameroon, especially under SSP3-RCP7.0, while the suitability for cassava will remain relatively stable. Regarding the livestock sector, it seems very likely that the grazing potential will decrease under both climate change scenarios with higher decreases under SSP1-RCP2.6 than under SSP3-RCP7.0. All three adaptation strategies were found to be economically beneficial, to have a high potential for risk mitigation and to entail different co-benefits. Particularly, ISFM can be highly recommended resulting in very positive effects for smallholder farmers, and the environment. Improving seeds has a high potential to improve livelihoods, but this adaptation strategy is also support-intensive. Lastly, agroforestry has a potential to reduce the impact of climate risks on cocoa production, but future climatic suitability needs to be considered. The findings of this study can help to inform national and local adaptation and agricultural development planning and investments in order to strengthen the resilience of the agricultural sector and especially of smallholder farmers against a changing climate in Cameroon.


Language(s): eng - English
 Dates: 2023-112023-11
 Publication Status: Finally published
 Pages: 70
 Publishing info: Potsdam : A report prepared by the Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research (PIK) in cooperation with the Deutsche Gesellschaft für Internationale Zusammenarbeit (GIZ) GmbH on behalf of the German Federal Ministry for Economic Cooperation and Development (BMZ)
 Table of Contents: -
 Rev. Type: -
 Identifiers: PIKDOMAIN: RD2 - Climate Resilience
MDB-ID: No data to archive
Organisational keyword: RD2 - Climate Resilience
DOI: 10.48485/pik.2023.023
 Degree: -



Legal Case


Project information