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  How climate metrics affect global mitigation strategies and costs: a multi-model study

Harmsen, M. J. H. M., Berg, M. v. d., Krey, V., Luderer, G., Marcucci, A., Strefler, J., Vuuren, D. P. v. (2016): How climate metrics affect global mitigation strategies and costs: a multi-model study. - Climatic Change, 136, 2, 203-216.
https://doi.org/10.1007/s10584-016-1603-7

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Harmsen, M. J. H. M.1, Author
Berg, M. van den1, Author
Krey, V.1, Author
Luderer, Gunnar2, Author              
Marcucci, A.1, Author
Strefler, Jessica2, Author              
Vuuren, D. P. van1, Author
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1External Organizations, ou_persistent22              
2Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research, ou_persistent13              

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 Abstract: In climate policy, substitutions metrics are used to determine exchange ratios for different greenhouse gases as part of a multi-gas strategy. The suitability of the metric depends on the policy goals and considerations regarding its practical use. Here, we present a multi-model comparison study to look at the impact of different metrics on the mitigation strategies and global climate policy costs. The study looks into different Global Warming Potentials (GWP) and the Global Temperature change Potential (GTP). The study shows that for all the models, varying between GWPs - from different IPCC reports, with different integration periods: 20 or 100 years - has a relatively small influence on policy costs (< 2.2 % spread across scenarios with a 2.8 W/m2 target) and climate outcomes. Metrics with a constant low substitution value for methane (effectively reducing its abatement), in contrast, lead to higher-cost mitigation pathways (with an average cost increase of 32.8 % in a 2.8 W/m2 scenario). If implemented efficiently, a time-varying GTP leads to a limited cost reduction compared to GWP. However, under imperfect foresight in combination with inertia of CH4 abatement options, or if implemented sub-optimally, time-varying GTP can result in higher costs than a 100-year GWP. At the same time, given a long-term radiative forcing target, a time-varying GTP results in slightly higher maximum global temperature change rates.

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 Dates: 2016
 Publication Status: Finally published
 Pages: -
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 Table of Contents: -
 Rev. Type: Peer
 Identifiers: DOI: 10.1007/s10584-016-1603-7
PIKDOMAIN: Sustainable Solutions - Research Domain III
eDoc: 7112
Organisational keyword: RD3 - Transformation Pathways
Research topic keyword: 1.5/2°C limit
Research topic keyword: Energy
Research topic keyword: Decarbonization  
Model / method: REMIND
Model / method: Model Intercomparison
Regional keyword: Global
Working Group: Energy Systems
 Degree: -

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Title: Climatic Change
Source Genre: Journal, SCI, Scopus, p3
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Pages: - Volume / Issue: 136 (2) Sequence Number: - Start / End Page: 203 - 216 Identifier: CoNE: https://publications.pik-potsdam.de/cone/journals/resource/journals80