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Abstract:
The Arctic has warmed almost four times faster than the rest of the globe during
the past four decades. This has led to multiple impacts in the Arctic such as the
melting of glaciers and the Greenland ice sheet, sea ice retreat, permafrost thaw,
altered species distribution and abundance, changes in hydrology and snow con-
ditions, and altered wildfire regimes. These documented and projected impacts
in the region can also propagate across borders, creating risks and opportunities
requiring adaptation responses well beyond the Arctic. By undertaking a system-
atic literature review that uses a conceptual framework for cross-border climate
change impacts, we demonstrate how local impacts of the type described above,
which are often analyzed separately in the literature, may initiate knock-on
effects that can be transmitted and transformed across borders. We illustrate
examples of six categories of cross-border risks resulting from this impact trans-
mission and potentially requiring adaptation. These concern biophysical impacts,
trade, infrastructure, finance, geopolitical relationships and human security and
social justice. We examine potential adaptation options for responding to such
cross-border risks that are of relevance for Europe. The systemic approach taken
in this paper promotes improved understanding of trade-offs between potential
benefits and risks, assists priority-setting for targeting adaptation interventions,
and can account for the important role of non-climatic drivers in amplifying or
dampening the cross-border risks of climate change impacts in the Arctic.
