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Abstract:
The European Climate Law (2021) legislated the targets set out in the European Green Deal of
climate neutrality (net-zero GHGs) by 2050 and an intermediate target of 55% reduction by 2030
compared to 1990. Established as part of the European Climate Law in 2021, the European Scientific
Advisory Board on Climate Change (Advisory Board), has been tasked with advising the EU on a
subsequent intermediate target for 2040, and indicative budgets for EU greenhouse gas emissions
for the 2030-2050 period. This advice should also be in line with other international commitments
such as the Paris Agreement.
In 2022, via a Call for Scenarios, the Advisory Board invited the wider research community to submit
emissions scenario data to support the evidence base for its advice. More than 1100 scenarios were
collected and assessed in an emissions scenario database hosted online by IIASA, with thirty
additional scenarios from the Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research (PIK) to further assist
the analysis.
This report, and supporting data and code, aims to transparently document the additional scenario
data processing and analysis that has been undertaken to assist the Advisory Board’s deliberations.
Much of the assessment presented here builds on best-practice methods recently used in the IPCC’s
latest report, the 6th Assessment Report (AR6).
