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Scenarios processing, vetting and feasibility assessment for the European Scientific Advisory Board on Climate Change

Authors

Byers,  Edward
External Organizations;

Brutschin,  Elina
External Organizations;

Sferra,  Fabio
External Organizations;

/persons/resource/Gunnar.Luderer

Luderer,  Gunnar
Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research;

Huppmann,  Daniel
External Organizations;

Kikstra,  Jarmo S
External Organizations;

/persons/resource/Robert.Pietzcker

Pietzcker,  Robert C.
Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research;

/persons/resource/renato.rodrigues

Rodrigues,  Renato
Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research;

Riahi,  Keywan
External Organizations;

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Citation

Byers, E., Brutschin, E., Sferra, F., Luderer, G., Huppmann, D., Kikstra, J. S., Pietzcker, R. C., Rodrigues, R., Riahi, K. (2023): Scenarios processing, vetting and feasibility assessment for the European Scientific Advisory Board on Climate Change, Laxenburg : International Institute for Applied Systems Analysis (IIASA), 65 p.


Cite as: https://publications.pik-potsdam.de/pubman/item/item_29169
Abstract
The European Climate Law (2021) legislated the targets set out in the European Green Deal of climate neutrality (net-zero GHGs) by 2050 and an intermediate target of 55% reduction by 2030 compared to 1990. Established as part of the European Climate Law in 2021, the European Scientific Advisory Board on Climate Change (Advisory Board), has been tasked with advising the EU on a subsequent intermediate target for 2040, and indicative budgets for EU greenhouse gas emissions for the 2030-2050 period. This advice should also be in line with other international commitments such as the Paris Agreement. In 2022, via a Call for Scenarios, the Advisory Board invited the wider research community to submit emissions scenario data to support the evidence base for its advice. More than 1100 scenarios were collected and assessed in an emissions scenario database hosted online by IIASA, with thirty additional scenarios from the Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research (PIK) to further assist the analysis. This report, and supporting data and code, aims to transparently document the additional scenario data processing and analysis that has been undertaken to assist the Advisory Board’s deliberations. Much of the assessment presented here builds on best-practice methods recently used in the IPCC’s latest report, the 6th Assessment Report (AR6).