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  Limited emission reductions from fuel subsidy removal except in energy-exporting regions

Jewell, J., McCollum, D., Emmerling, J., Bertram, C., Gernaat, D. E. H. J., Krey, V., Paroussos, L., Berger, L., Fragkiadakis, K., Keppo, I., Saadi, N., Tavoni, M., Vuuren, D. P. v., Vinichenko, V., Riahi, K. (2018): Limited emission reductions from fuel subsidy removal except in energy-exporting regions. - Nature, 554, 7691, 229-233.
https://doi.org/10.1038/nature25467

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Jewell, J.1, Author
McCollum, D.1, Author
Emmerling, J.1, Author
Bertram, Christoph2, Author              
Gernaat, D. E. H. J.1, Author
Krey, V.1, Author
Paroussos, L.1, Author
Berger, L.1, Author
Fragkiadakis, K.1, Author
Keppo, I.1, Author
Saadi, N.1, Author
Tavoni, M.1, Author
Vuuren, D. P. van1, Author
Vinichenko, V.1, Author
Riahi, K.1, Author
Affiliations:
1External Organizations, ou_persistent22              
2Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research, ou_persistent13              

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 Abstract: Hopes are high that removing fossil fuel subsidies could help to mitigate climate change by discouraging inefficient energy consumption and levelling the playing field for renewable energy1,2,3. In September 2016, the G20 countries re-affirmed their 2009 commitment (at the G20 Leaders’ Summit) to phase out fossil fuel subsidies4,5 and many national governments are using today’s low oil prices as an opportunity to do so6,7,8,9. In practical terms, this means abandoning policies that decrease the price of fossil fuels and electricity generated from fossil fuels to below normal market prices10,11. However, whether the removal of subsidies, even if implemented worldwide, would have a large impact on climate change mitigation has not been systematically explored. Here we show that removing fossil fuel subsidies would have an unexpectedly small impact on global energy demand and carbon dioxide emissions and would not increase renewable energy use by 2030. Subsidy removal would reduce the carbon price necessary to stabilize greenhouse gas concentration at 550 parts per million by only 2–12 per cent under low oil prices. Removing subsidies in most regions would deliver smaller emission reductions than the Paris Agreement (2015) climate pledges and in some regions global subsidy removal may actually lead to an increase in emissions, owing to either coal replacing subsidized oil and natural gas or natural-gas use shifting from subsidizing, energy-exporting regions to non-subsidizing, importing regions. Our results show that subsidy removal would result in the largest CO2 emission reductions in high-income oil- and gas-exporting regions, where the reductions would exceed the climate pledges of these regions and where subsidy removal would affect fewer people living below the poverty line than in lower-income regions.

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 Dates: 2018
 Publication Status: Finally published
 Pages: -
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 Table of Contents: -
 Rev. Type: -
 Identifiers: DOI: 10.1038/nature25467
PIKDOMAIN: Sustainable Solutions - Research Domain III
eDoc: 7824
Research topic keyword: Climate Policy
Research topic keyword: Energy
Research topic keyword: Mitigation
Research topic keyword: Economics
Research topic keyword: Inequality and Equity
Model / method: REMIND
Model / method: Model Intercomparison
Regional keyword: Global
Organisational keyword: RD3 - Transformation Pathways
Working Group: Energy Systems
 Degree: -

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Title: Nature
Source Genre: Journal, SCI, Scopus, p3
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Pages: - Volume / Issue: 554 (7691) Sequence Number: - Start / End Page: 229 - 233 Identifier: CoNE: https://publications.pik-potsdam.de/cone/journals/resource/journals353