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  Simulating the Earth system response to negative emissions

Jones, C. D., Ciais, P., Davis, S. J., Friedlingstein, P., Gasser, T., Peters, G. P., Rogelj, J., Vuuren, D. P. v., Canadell, J. G., Cowie, A., Jackson, R. B., Jonas, M., Kriegler, E., Littleton, E., Lowe, J. A., Milne, J., Shrestha, G., Smith, P., Torvanger, A., Wiltshire, A. (2016): Simulating the Earth system response to negative emissions. - Environmental Research Letters, 11, 9, 095012.
https://doi.org/10.1088/1748-9326/11/9/095012

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 Creators:
Jones, C. D.1, Author
Ciais, P.1, Author
Davis, S. J.1, Author
Friedlingstein, P.1, Author
Gasser, T.1, Author
Peters, G. P.1, Author
Rogelj, J.1, Author
Vuuren, D. P. van1, Author
Canadell, J. G.1, Author
Cowie, A.1, Author
Jackson, R. B.1, Author
Jonas, M.1, Author
Kriegler, Elmar2, Author              
Littleton, E.1, Author
Lowe, J. A.1, Author
Milne, J.1, Author
Shrestha, G.1, Author
Smith, P.1, Author
Torvanger, A.1, Author
Wiltshire, A.1, Author
Affiliations:
1External Organizations, ou_persistent22              
2Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research, ou_persistent13              

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 Abstract: Natural carbon sinks currently absorb approximately half of the anthropogenic CO2 emitted by fossil fuel burning, cement production and land-use change. However, this airborne fraction may change in the future depending on the emissions scenario. An important issue in developing carbon budgets to achieve climate stabilisation targets is the behaviour of natural carbon sinks, particularly under low emissions mitigation scenarios as required to meet the goals of the Paris Agreement. A key requirement for low carbon pathways is to quantify the effectiveness of negative emissions technologies which will be strongly affected by carbon cycle feedbacks. Here we find that Earth system models suggest significant weakening, even potential reversal, of the ocean and land sinks under future low emission scenarios. For the RCP2.6 concentration pathway, models project land and ocean sinks to weaken to 0.8 ± 0.9 and 1.1 ± 0.3 GtC yr−1 respectively for the second half of the 21st century and to −0.4 ± 0.4 and 0.1 ± 0.2 GtC yr−1 respectively for the second half of the 23rd century. Weakening of natural carbon sinks will hinder the effectiveness of negative emissions technologies and therefore increase their required deployment to achieve a given climate stabilisation target. We introduce a new metric, the perturbation airborne fraction, to measure and assess the effectiveness of negative emissions.

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 Dates: 2016
 Publication Status: Finally published
 Pages: -
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 Rev. Type: Peer
 Identifiers: DOI: 10.1088/1748-9326/11/9/095012
PIKDOMAIN: Sustainable Solutions - Research Domain III
eDoc: 7493
Research topic keyword: Mitigation
Regional keyword: Global
Organisational keyword: RD3 - Transformation Pathways
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Title: Environmental Research Letters
Source Genre: Journal, SCI, Scopus, p3, oa
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Pages: - Volume / Issue: 11 (9) Sequence Number: 095012 Start / End Page: - Identifier: CoNE: https://publications.pik-potsdam.de/cone/journals/resource/150326