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  Tree mortality submodels drive simulated long-term forest dynamics: assessing 15 models from the stand to global scale

Bugmann, H., Seidl, R., Hartig, F., Bohn, F., Bruna, J., Cailleret, M., Francois, L., Heinke, J., Henrot, A.-J., Hickler, T., Hülsmann, L., Huth, A., Jacquemin, I., Kollas, C., Lasch-Born, P., Lexer, M. J., Merganic, J., Merganicova, K., Mette, T., Miranda, B. R., Nadal-Sala, D., Rammer, W., Rammig, A., Reineking, B., Roedig, E., Sabaté, S., Steinkamp, J., Suckow, F., Vacchiano, G., Wild, J., Xu, C., Reyer, C. P. O. (2019): Tree mortality submodels drive simulated long-term forest dynamics: assessing 15 models from the stand to global scale. - Ecosphere, 10, 2, e02616.
https://doi.org/10.1002/ecs2.2616

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 Creators:
Bugmann, H.1, Author
Seidl, R.1, Author
Hartig, F.1, Author
Bohn, F.1, Author
Bruna, J.1, Author
Cailleret, M.1, Author
Francois, L.1, Author
Heinke, Jens2, Author              
Henrot, A.-J.1, Author
Hickler, T.1, Author
Hülsmann, L.1, Author
Huth, A.1, Author
Jacquemin, I.1, Author
Kollas, Chris2, Author              
Lasch-Born, Petra2, Author              
Lexer, M. J.1, Author
Merganic, J.1, Author
Merganicova, K.1, Author
Mette, T.1, Author
Miranda, B. R.1, Author
Nadal-Sala, D.1, AuthorRammer, W.1, AuthorRammig, Anja2, Author              Reineking, B.1, AuthorRoedig, E.1, AuthorSabaté, S.1, AuthorSteinkamp, J.1, AuthorSuckow, Felicitas2, Author              Vacchiano, G.1, AuthorWild, J.1, AuthorXu, C.1, AuthorReyer, Christopher P. O.2, Author               more..
Affiliations:
1External Organizations, ou_persistent22              
2Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research, ou_persistent13              

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 Abstract: Models are pivotal for assessing future forest dynamics under the impacts of changing climate and management practices, incorporating representations of tree growth, mortality, and regeneration. Quantitative studies on the importance of mortality submodels are scarce. We evaluated 15 dynamic vegetation models (DVMs) regarding their sensitivity to different formulations of tree mortality under different degrees of climate change. The set of models comprised eight DVMs at the stand scale, three at the landscape scale, and four typically applied at the continental to global scale. Some incorporate empirically derived mortality models, and others are based on experimental data, whereas still others are based on theoretical reasoning. Each DVM was run with at least two alternative mortality submodels. Model behavior was evaluated against empirical time series data, and then, the models were subjected to different scenarios of climate change. Most DVMs matched empirical data quite well, irrespective of the mortality submodel that was used. However, mortality submodels that performed in a very similar manner against past data often led to sharply different trajectories of forest dynamics under future climate change. Most DVMs featured high sensitivity to the mortality submodel, with deviations of basal area and stem numbers on the order of 10–40% per century under current climate and 20–170% under climate change. The sensitivity of a given DVM to scenarios of climate change, however, was typically lower by a factor of two to three. We conclude that (1) mortality is one of the most uncertain processes when it comes to assessing forest response to climate change, and (2) more data and a better process understanding of tree mortality are needed to improve the robustness of simulated future forest dynamics. Our study highlights that comparing several alternative mortality formulations in DVMs provides valuable insights into the effects of process uncertainties on simulated future forest dynamics.

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 Dates: 2019
 Publication Status: Finally published
 Pages: -
 Publishing info: -
 Table of Contents: -
 Rev. Type: Peer
 Identifiers: DOI: 10.1002/ecs2.2616
PIKDOMAIN: RD2 - Climate Resilience
PIKDOMAIN: RD1 - Earth System Analysis
eDoc: 8364
Research topic keyword: Ecosystems
Research topic keyword: Climate impacts
Model / method: Model Intercomparison
Regional keyword: South America
Organisational keyword: RD2 - Climate Resilience
Organisational keyword: RD1 - Earth System Analysis
MDB-ID: yes - 3330
Working Group: Land Use and Resilience
 Degree: -

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Title: Ecosphere
Source Genre: Journal, SCI, Scopus, p3, oa
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Pages: - Volume / Issue: 10 (2) Sequence Number: e02616 Start / End Page: - Identifier: CoNE: https://publications.pik-potsdam.de/cone/journals/resource/180228
Publisher: Wiley