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  Simulating and delineating future land change trajectories across Europe

Stürck, J., Levers, C., Zanden, E. H. v. d., Schulp, C. J. E., Verkerk, P. J., Kuemmerle, T., Helming, J., Lotze-Campen, H., Tabeau, A., Popp, A., Schrammeijer, E., Verburg, P. (2018): Simulating and delineating future land change trajectories across Europe. - Regional Environmental Change, 18, 3, 733-749.
https://doi.org/10.1007/s10113-015-0876-0

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 Creators:
Stürck, J.1, Author
Levers, C.1, Author
Zanden, E. H. van der1, Author
Schulp, C. J. E.1, Author
Verkerk, P. J.1, Author
Kuemmerle, T.1, Author
Helming, J.1, Author
Lotze-Campen, Hermann2, Author              
Tabeau, A.1, Author
Popp, Alexander2, Author              
Schrammeijer, E.1, Author
Verburg, P.1, Author
Affiliations:
1External Organizations, ou_persistent22              
2Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research, ou_persistent13              

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 Abstract: Explorations of future land use change are important to understand potential conflicts between competing land uses, trade-offs associated with particular land change trajectories, and the effectiveness of policies to steer land systems into desirable states. Most model-based explorations and scenario studies focused on conversions in broad land use classes, but disregarded changes in land management or focused on individual sectors only. Using the European Union (EU) as a case study, we developed an approach to identifying typical combinations of land cover and management changes by combining the results of multimodel simulations in the agriculture and forest sectors for four scenarios from 2000 to 2040. We visualized land change trajectories by mapping regional hotspots of change. Land change trajectories differed in extent and spatial pattern across the EU and among scenarios, indicating trajectory-specific option spaces for alternative land system outcomes. In spite of the large variation in the area of change, similar hotspots of land change were observed among the scenarios. All scenarios indicate a stronger polarization of land use in Europe, with a loss of multifunctional landscapes. We analyzed locations subject to change by comparing location characteristics associated with certain land change trajectories. Results indicate differences in the location conditions of different land change trajectories, with diverging impacts on ecosystem service provisioning. Policy and planning for future land use needs to account for the spatial variation of land change trajectories to achieve both overarching and location-specific targets.

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 Dates: 2018
 Publication Status: Finally published
 Pages: -
 Publishing info: -
 Table of Contents: -
 Rev. Type: Peer
 Identifiers: DOI: 10.1007/s10113-015-0876-0
PIKDOMAIN: Climate Impacts & Vulnerabilities - Research Domain II
PIKDOMAIN: Sustainable Solutions - Research Domain III
eDoc: 6978
Research topic keyword: Land use
Research topic keyword: Food & Agriculture
Research topic keyword: Ecosystems
Research topic keyword: Economics
Research topic keyword: Biodiversity
Model / method: MAgPIE
Model / method: REMIND
Regional keyword: Global
Regional keyword: Europe
Organisational keyword: RD2 - Climate Resilience
Organisational keyword: RD3 - Transformation Pathways
Working Group: Land Use and Resilience
Working Group: Land-Use Management
 Degree: -

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Title: Regional Environmental Change
Source Genre: Journal, SCI, Scopus, p3
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Pages: - Volume / Issue: 18 (3) Sequence Number: - Start / End Page: 733 - 749 Identifier: CoNE: https://publications.pik-potsdam.de/cone/journals/resource/journals425