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  Macroeconomic drivers of baseline scenarios in dynamic CGE models: review and guidelines proposal

Foure, J., Aguiar, A., Bibas, R., Chateau, J., Fujimori, S., Lefevre, J., Leimbach, M., Rey-Los-Santos, L., Valin, H. (2020): Macroeconomic drivers of baseline scenarios in dynamic CGE models: review and guidelines proposal. - Journal of Global Economic Analysis, 5, 1, 28-62.
https://doi.org/10.21642/JGEA.050102AF

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 Creators:
Foure, Jean1, Author
Aguiar, Angel1, Author
Bibas, Ruben1, Author
Chateau, Jean1, Author
Fujimori, Shinichiro1, Author
Lefevre, Julien1, Author
Leimbach, Marian2, Author              
Rey-Los-Santos, Luis1, Author
Valin, Hugo1, Author
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1External Organizations, ou_persistent22              
2Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research, ou_persistent13              

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 Abstract: For dynamic computable general equilibrium (CGE) modeling, long-term baseline construction is key and depends on the applied methods and the sources of projections considered. For dynamic CGE models, baseline assumptions and base data are both important determinants of results. This paper reviews the assumptions made by 24 modeling teams on baseline macroeconomic drivers, understood as factor accumulation and gross domestic product (GDP) growth. We critically review the various methods, identifying state-of-the-art practices and propose simple guidelines, particularly focusing on consistency between data sources and models, which is intended to help dynamic CGE modelers build their own baselines.

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 Dates: 2020-06-262020
 Publication Status: Finally published
 Pages: -
 Publishing info: -
 Table of Contents: -
 Rev. Type: Peer
 Identifiers: DOI: 10.21642/JGEA.050102AF
PIKDOMAIN: RD3 - Transformation Pathways
MDB-ID: No data to archive
Research topic keyword: Economics
Research topic keyword: Energy
Research topic keyword: Land use
Model / method: Model Intercomparison
Regional keyword: Global
Organisational keyword: RD3 - Transformation Pathways
Working Group: Macroeconomic modeling of climate change mitigation and impacts
 Degree: -

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Title: Journal of Global Economic Analysis
Source Genre: Journal, other, oa
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Pages: - Volume / Issue: 5 (1) Sequence Number: - Start / End Page: 28 - 62 Identifier: ISSN: 2377-2999
Other: Center for Global Trade Analysis
CoNE: https://publications.pik-potsdam.de/cone/journals/resource/journal-global-economic-analysis
Publisher: Center for Global Trade Analysis