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  Early retirement of power plants in climate mitigation scenarios

Fofrich, R. A., Tong, D., Calvin, K. V., de Boer, H. S., Emmerling, J., Fricko, O., Fujimori, S., Luderer, G., Rogelj, J., Davis, S. J. (2020): Early retirement of power plants in climate mitigation scenarios. - Environmental Research Letters, 15, 9, 094064.
https://doi.org/10.1088/1748-9326/ab96d3

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Fofrich, R. A.1, Author
Tong, D.1, Author
Calvin, K. V.1, Author
de Boer, H. S.1, Author
Emmerling, J.1, Author
Fricko, O.1, Author
Fujimori, S.1, Author
Luderer, Gunnar2, Author              
Rogelj, J.1, Author
Davis, S. J.1, Author
Affiliations:
1External Organizations, ou_persistent22              
2Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research, ou_persistent13              

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 Abstract: International efforts to avoid dangerous climate change aim for large and rapid reductions of fossil fuel CO2 emissions worldwide, including nearly complete decarbonization of the electric power sector. However, achieving such rapid reductions may depend on early retirement of coal- and natural gas-fired power plants. Here, we analyze future fossil fuel electricity demand in 171 energy-emissions scenarios from Integrated Assessment Models (IAMs), evaluating the implicit retirements and/or reduced operation of generating infrastructure. Although IAMs calculate retirements endogenously, the structure and methods of each model differ; we use a standard approach to infer retirements in outputs from all six major IAMs and—unlike the IAMs themselves—we begin with the age distribution and region-specific operating capacities of the existing power fleet. We find that coal-fired power plants in scenarios consistent with international climate targets (i.e., keeping global warming well-below 2°C or 1.5°C) retire one to three decades earlier than historically has been the case. If plants are built to meet projected fossil electricity demand and instead allowed to operate at the level and over the lifetimes they have historically, the roughly 200 Gt CO2 of additional emissions this century would be incompatible with keeping global warming well-below 2°C. Thus, ambitious climate mitigation scenarios entail drastic, and perhaps un-appreciated, changes in the operating and/or retirement schedules of power infrastructure.

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 Dates: 2020-05-272020
 Publication Status: Finally published
 Pages: -
 Publishing info: -
 Table of Contents: -
 Rev. Type: Peer
 Identifiers: MDB-ID: No data to archive
PIKDOMAIN: RD3 - Transformation Pathways
DOI: 10.1088/1748-9326/ab96d3
Organisational keyword: RD3 - Transformation Pathways
Research topic keyword: 1.5/2°C limit
Research topic keyword: Energy
Research topic keyword: Decarbonization  
Model / method: REMIND
Model / method: Model Intercomparison
Regional keyword: Global
Working Group: Energy Systems
 Degree: -

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Title: Environmental Research Letters
Source Genre: Journal, SCI, Scopus, p3, oa
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Pages: - Volume / Issue: 15 (9) Sequence Number: 094064 Start / End Page: - Identifier: CoNE: https://publications.pik-potsdam.de/cone/journals/resource/150326
Publisher: IOP Publishing