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Climate change is likely to affect forests and the forest industry during the 21st century. Different processes in forest ecosystems and the forest sector are sensitive to climate and many different projects have been conducted, in which the scale of study varied from the individual leaf to the whole globe. Several attempts have been made to link impact models (e.g., ecological and socio-economic models), and to integrate them in national or regional climate impact assessment studies. However, integration of climate impact assessments for the forestry sector is still a relatively new issue on the research agenda. From November 10 to 13, 1999 the Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research and the European Forest Institute organised a workshop in Wenddoche near Belzig (Germany) to bring together individuals and research groups from the currently developing research community, to provide a forum for the exchange of experience, and to stimulate further research collaboration.
The workshop attracted 31 scientists from 12 countries, representing a wide range of disciplines covering ecophysiology, soils, forest ecology, growth and yield, silviculture, remote sensing, forest policy, and forest economics. Several presentations investigated possible impacts of climate change on forest growth and development. A second major topic was the carbon budget and the possible contribution of forestry to carbon dioxide mitigation. The third important focus was the application of economic models to estimate socio-economic consequences of changes in forest productivity and the linkage of ecological and economic models. Non-timber forest benefits were addressed in one regional impact assessment and in two national integrated assessments from the U.S. and Germany. The latter also included social components with the involvement of stakeholders and the decision making of forest owners under global change.
An important objective of the NIMA workshop was to review the state-of-the-art of integrated climate impact assessments in the forest sector. Three working groups were tasked with discussing the state of knowledge, the currently available methodology, and the remaining uncertainties regarding (i) scaling up impact assessments from stand to regional and national scale, (ii) integrating cross-disciplinary impact assessments, and (iii) climate impact assessments and policy making. Among the issues discussed were scaling up methodologies (e.g. simplification of information, application of models in scaling up, error analysis), different ways of integrating cross-disciplinary impact assessments (linking, coupling, and roofing of simulation models), how to deal with uncertainties, and what information climate impact assessments can provide to policy making.
The participants felt that there is a need for improved cross-disciplinary research collaboration. After a successful and stimulating workshop it was agreed to organise another meeting to continue with the exchange of ideas and experiences, possibly in the U.S.
Theme I - Regional impact assessments
