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  Decadal variability of floods in the northern foreland of the Tatra Mountains

Ruiz-Villanueva, V., Stoffel, M., Wyzga, B., Kundzewicz, Z. W., Czajka, B., Niedzwiedz, T. (2016): Decadal variability of floods in the northern foreland of the Tatra Mountains. - Regional Environmental Change, 16, 3, 603-615.
https://doi.org/10.1007/s10113-014-0694-9

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Ruiz-Villanueva, V.1, Author
Stoffel, M.1, Author
Wyzga, B.1, Author
Kundzewicz, Zbigniew W.2, Author              
Czajka, B.1, Author
Niedzwiedz, T.1, Author
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1External Organizations, ou_persistent22              
2Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research, ou_persistent13              

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 Abstract: Floods in the northern foreland of the Tatra Mountains considerably contribute to the total flood damage in Poland. Therefore, the question whether the magnitude and frequency of floods have changed in this region is of high interest. This study aims at investigating the inter-decadal variability of magnitude, frequency and seasonality of floods since the mid-twentieth century, to better understand regional changes. The analysis was accomplished in a multi-temporal approach whereby trends are fitted to every possible combination of start and end years in a record. Detected trends were explained by estimating correlations between the investigated flood parameters and different large-scale climate indices for the northern hemisphere, and by trends found in intense precipitation indices, number of days with snow cover, cyclonic circulation types, temperature and moisture conditions. Catchment and channel changes that occurred in the region over the past decades were also considered. Results show that rivers in the area exhibit considerable inter-decadal variability of flows. The magnitude and direction of short-term trends are heavily influenced by this inter-decadal variability; however, certain patterns are apparent. More extreme, although perhaps less frequent floods are now likely to occur, with a shift in the seasonality, decreasing flood magnitudes in winter and increasing during autumn and spring. The identification of the factors contributing to the occurrence of flood events and their potential changes is valuable to enhance the flood management in the region and to improve the resilience of the population in this mountainous area.

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 Dates: 2016
 Publication Status: Finally published
 Pages: -
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 Rev. Type: Peer
 Identifiers: DOI: 10.1007/s10113-014-0694-9
PIKDOMAIN: Climate Impacts & Vulnerabilities - Research Domain II
eDoc: 6613
Research topic keyword: Extremes
Research topic keyword: Freshwater
Organisational keyword: RD2 - Climate Resilience
Working Group: Hydroclimatic Risks
 Degree: -

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Title: Regional Environmental Change
Source Genre: Journal, SCI, Scopus, p3
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Pages: - Volume / Issue: 16 (3) Sequence Number: - Start / End Page: 603 - 615 Identifier: CoNE: https://publications.pik-potsdam.de/cone/journals/resource/journals425