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  Predicting Paris: Multi-method approaches to forecast the outcomes of global climate negotiations

Sprinz, D. F., Bueno de Mesquita, B., Kallbekken, S., Stokman, F., Saelen, H., Thomson, R. (2016): Predicting Paris: Multi-method approaches to forecast the outcomes of global climate negotiations. - Politics and Governance, 4, 3, 172-187.
https://doi.org/10.17645/pag.v4i3.654

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Item Permalink: https://publications.pik-potsdam.de/pubman/item/item_20648 Version Permalink: https://publications.pik-potsdam.de/pubman/item/item_20648_4
Genre: Journal Article

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 Creators:
Sprinz, Detlef F.1, Author              
Bueno de Mesquita, B.2, Author
Kallbekken, S.2, Author
Stokman, F.2, Author
Saelen, H.2, Author
Thomson, R.2, Author
Affiliations:
1Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research, ou_persistent13              
2External Organizations, ou_persistent22              

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 Abstract: We examine the negotiations held under the auspices of the United Nations Framework Convention of Climate Change in Paris, December 2015. Prior to these negotiations, there was considerable uncertainty about whether an agreement would be reached, particularly given that the world’s leaders failed to do so in the 2009 negotiations held in Copenhagen. Amid this uncertainty, we applied three different methods to predict the outcomes: an expert survey and two negotiation simulation models, namely the Exchange Model and the Predictioneer’s Game. After the event, these predictions were assessed against the coded texts that were agreed in Paris. The evidence suggests that combining experts’ predictions to reach a collective expert prediction makes for significantly more accurate predictions than individual experts’ predictions. The differences in the performance between the two different negotiation simulation models were not statistically significant.

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 Dates: 2016
 Publication Status: Finally published
 Pages: -
 Publishing info: -
 Table of Contents: -
 Rev. Method: Peer
 Identifiers: DOI: 10.17645/pag.v4i3.654
PIKDOMAIN: Transdisciplinary Concepts & Methods - Research Domain IV
eDoc: 7052
Research topic keyword: Mitigation
Research topic keyword: Climate Policy
Model / method: Agent-based Models
Regional keyword: Global
Organisational keyword: FutureLab - Social Metabolism and Impacts
 Degree: -

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Title: Politics and Governance
Source Genre: Journal, SCI, Scopus, oa
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Pages: - Volume / Issue: 4 (3) Sequence Number: - Start / End Page: 172 - 187 Identifier: Other: Cogitatio Press
Other: 2183-2463
CoNE: https://publications.pik-potsdam.de/cone/journals/resource/politics-and-governance