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  Multi-wheat-model ensemble responses to interannual climate variability

Ruane, A. C., Hudson, N. I., Asseng, S., Cammarano, D., Ewert, F., Martre, P., Boote, K. J., Thorburn, P. J., Aggarwal, P. K., Angulo, C., Basso, B., Bertuzzi, P., Biernath, C., Brisson, N., Challinor, A. J., Doltra, J., Gayler, S., Goldberg, R., Grant, R. F., Heng, L., Hooker, J., Hunt, L. A., Ingwersen, J., Izaurralde, R. C., Kersebaum, K. C., Kumar, S. N., Müller, C., Nendel, C., O'Leary, G., Olesen, J. E., Osborne, T. M., Palosuo, T., Priesack, E., Ripoche, D., Rötter, R. P., Semenov, M. A., Shcherbak, I., Steduto, P., Stöckle, C. O., Stratonovitch, P., Streck, T., Supit, I., Tao, F., Travasso, M., Waha, K., Wallach, D., White, J. W., Wolf, J. (2016): Multi-wheat-model ensemble responses to interannual climate variability. - Environmental Modelling and Software, 81, 86-101.
https://doi.org/10.1016/j.envsoft.2016.03.008

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 Creators:
Ruane, A. C.1, Author
Hudson, N. I.1, Author
Asseng, S.1, Author
Cammarano, D.1, Author
Ewert, F.1, Author
Martre, P.1, Author
Boote, K. J.1, Author
Thorburn, P. J.1, Author
Aggarwal, P. K.1, Author
Angulo, C.1, Author
Basso, B.1, Author
Bertuzzi, P.1, Author
Biernath, C.1, Author
Brisson, N.1, Author
Challinor, A. J.1, Author
Doltra, J.1, Author
Gayler, S.1, Author
Goldberg, R.1, Author
Grant, R. F.1, Author
Heng, L.1, Author
Hooker, J.1, AuthorHunt, L. A.1, AuthorIngwersen, J.1, AuthorIzaurralde, R. C.1, AuthorKersebaum, K. C.1, AuthorKumar, S. N.1, AuthorMüller, Christoph2, Author              Nendel, C.1, AuthorO'Leary, G.1, AuthorOlesen, J. E.1, AuthorOsborne, T. M.1, AuthorPalosuo, T.1, AuthorPriesack, E.1, AuthorRipoche, D.1, AuthorRötter, R. P.1, AuthorSemenov, M. A.1, AuthorShcherbak, I.1, AuthorSteduto, P.1, AuthorStöckle, C. O.1, AuthorStratonovitch, P.1, AuthorStreck, T.1, AuthorSupit, I.1, AuthorTao, F.1, AuthorTravasso, M.1, AuthorWaha, Katharina2, Author              Wallach, D.1, AuthorWhite, J. W.1, AuthorWolf, J.1, Author more..
Affiliations:
1External Organizations, ou_persistent22              
2Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research, ou_persistent13              

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 Abstract: We compare 27 wheat models' yield responses to interannual climate variability, analyzed at locations in Argentina, Australia, India, and The Netherlands as part of the Agricultural Model Intercomparison and Improvement Project (AgMIP) Wheat Pilot. Each model simulated 1981–2010 grain yield, and we evaluate results against the interannual variability of growing season temperature, precipitation, and solar radiation. The amount of information used for calibration has only a minor effect on most models' climate response, and even small multi-model ensembles prove beneficial. Wheat model clusters reveal common characteristics of yield response to climate; however models rarely share the same cluster at all four sites indicating substantial independence. Only a weak relationship (R2 ≤ 0.24) was found between the models' sensitivities to interannual temperature variability and their response to long-term warming, suggesting that additional processes differentiate climate change impacts from observed climate variability analogs and motivating continuing analysis and model development efforts.

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 Dates: 2016
 Publication Status: Finally published
 Pages: -
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 Rev. Type: -
 Identifiers: DOI: 10.1016/j.envsoft.2016.03.008
PIKDOMAIN: Climate Impacts & Vulnerabilities - Research Domain II
eDoc: 7167
Research topic keyword: Food & Agriculture
Research topic keyword: Climate impacts
Model / method: LPJmL
Organisational keyword: RD2 - Climate Resilience
Working Group: Land Use and Resilience
 Degree: -

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Title: Environmental Modelling and Software
Source Genre: Journal, SCI, Scopus, p3
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Pages: - Volume / Issue: 81 Sequence Number: - Start / End Page: 86 - 101 Identifier: CoNE: https://publications.pik-potsdam.de/cone/journals/resource/journals127