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  Regional disparities in the beneficial effects of rising CO2 concentrations on crop water productivity

Deryng, D., Elliott, J., Folberth, C., Müller, C., Pugh, T. A. M., Boote, K. J., Conway, D., Ruane, A. C., Gerten, D., Jones, J. W., Khabarov, N., Olin, S., Schaphoff, S., Schmid, E., Yang, H., Rosenzweig, C. (2016): Regional disparities in the beneficial effects of rising CO2 concentrations on crop water productivity. - Nature Climate Change, 6, 8, 786-790.
https://doi.org/10.1038/nclimate2995

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Deryng, D.1, Author
Elliott, J.1, Author
Folberth, C.1, Author
Müller, Christoph2, Author              
Pugh, T. A. M.1, Author
Boote, K. J.1, Author
Conway, D.1, Author
Ruane, A. C.1, Author
Gerten, Dieter2, Author              
Jones, J. W.1, Author
Khabarov, N.1, Author
Olin, S.1, Author
Schaphoff, Sibyll2, Author              
Schmid, E.1, Author
Yang, H.1, Author
Rosenzweig, C.1, Author
Affiliations:
1Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research and Cooperation Partners, ou_persistent13              
2Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research, ou_persistent13              

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 Abstract: Rising atmospheric CO2 concentrations ([CO2]) are expected to enhance photosynthesis and reduce crop water use1. However, there is high uncertainty about the global implications of these effects for future crop production and agricultural water requirements under climate change. Here we combine results from networks of field experiments1,2 and global crop models3 to present a spatially explicit global perspective on crop water productivity (CWP, the ratio of crop yield to evapotranspiration) for wheat, maize, rice and soybean under elevated [CO2] and associated climate change projected for a high-end greenhouse gas emissions scenario. We find CO2 effects increase global CWP by 10[0;47]%–27[7;37]% (median[interquartile range] across the model ensemble) by the 2080s depending on crop types, with particularly large increases in arid regions (by up to 48[25;56]% for rainfed wheat). If realized in the fields, the effects of elevated [CO2] could considerably mitigate global yield losses whilst reducing agricultural consumptive water use (4–17%). We identify regional disparities driven by differences in growing conditions across agro-ecosystems that could have implications for increasing food production without compromising water security. Finally, our results demonstrate the need to expand field experiments and encourage greater consistency in modelling the effects of rising [CO2] across crop and hydrological modelling communities.

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 Dates: 2016
 Publication Status: Finally published
 Pages: -
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 Rev. Type: -
 Identifiers: DOI: 10.1038/nclimate2995
PIKDOMAIN: Climate Impacts & Vulnerabilities - Research Domain II
PIKDOMAIN: Earth System Analysis - Research Domain I
eDoc: 7168
Research topic keyword: Food & Agriculture
Model / method: LPJmL
Organisational keyword: RD2 - Climate Resilience
Working Group: Earth System Model Development
Working Group: Terrestrial Safe Operating Space
Working Group: Land Use and Resilience
 Degree: -

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Title: Nature Climate Change
Source Genre: Journal, SCI, Scopus, p3
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Pages: - Volume / Issue: 6 (8) Sequence Number: - Start / End Page: 786 - 790 Identifier: CoNE: https://publications.pik-potsdam.de/cone/journals/resource/140414