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  Consistent negative response of US crops to high temperatures in observations and crop models

Schauberger, B., Archontoulis, S., Arneth, A., Balkovič, J., Ciais, P., Deryng, D., Elliott, J., Folberth, C., Khabarov, N., Müller, C., Pugh, T. A. M., Rolinski, S., Schaphoff, S., Schmid, E., Wang, X., Schlenker, W., Frieler, K. (2017): Consistent negative response of US crops to high temperatures in observations and crop models. - Nature Communications, 8, 13931.
https://doi.org/10.1038/ncomms13931

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Schauberger, Bernhard1, Author              
Archontoulis, S.2, Author
Arneth, A.2, Author
Balkovič, J.2, Author
Ciais, P.2, Author
Deryng, D.2, Author
Elliott, J.2, Author
Folberth, C.2, Author
Khabarov, N.2, Author
Müller, Christoph1, Author              
Pugh, T. A. M.2, Author
Rolinski, Susanne1, Author              
Schaphoff, Sibyll1, Author              
Schmid, E.2, Author
Wang, X.2, Author
Schlenker, W.2, Author
Frieler, Katja1, Author              
Affiliations:
1Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research, ou_persistent13              
2External Organizations, ou_persistent22              

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 Abstract: High temperatures are detrimental to crop yields and could lead to global warming-driven reductions in agricultural productivity. To assess future threats, the majority of studies used process-based crop models, but their ability to represent effects of high temperature has been questioned. Here we show that an ensemble of nine crop models reproduces the observed average temperature responses of US maize, soybean and wheat yields. Each day >30 °C diminishes maize and soybean yields by up to 6% under rainfed conditions. Declines observed in irrigated areas, or simulated assuming full irrigation, are weak. This supports the hypothesis that water stress induced by high temperatures causes the decline. For wheat a negative response to high temperature is neither observed nor simulated under historical conditions, since critical temperatures are rarely exceeded during the growing season. In the future, yields are modelled to decline for all three crops at temperatures >30 °C. Elevated CO2 can only weakly reduce these yield losses, in contrast to irrigation.

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 Dates: 2017
 Publication Status: Finally published
 Pages: -
 Publishing info: -
 Table of Contents: -
 Rev. Type: Peer
 Identifiers: DOI: 10.1038/ncomms13931
PIKDOMAIN: Climate Impacts & Vulnerabilities - Research Domain II
PIKDOMAIN: Earth System Analysis - Research Domain I
eDoc: 7310
Research topic keyword: Food & Agriculture
Research topic keyword: Climate impacts
Research topic keyword: Extremes
Model / method: LPJmL
Model / method: Machine Learning
Model / method: Model Intercomparison
Regional keyword: North America
Organisational keyword: RD2 - Climate Resilience
Organisational keyword: RD3 - Transformation Pathways
Working Group: Earth System Model Development
Working Group: Terrestrial Safe Operating Space
Working Group: Adaptation in Agricultural Systems
Working Group: Land Use and Resilience
 Degree: -

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Title: Nature Communications
Source Genre: Journal, SCI, Scopus, p3, oa
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Pages: - Volume / Issue: 8 Sequence Number: 13931 Start / End Page: - Identifier: CoNE: https://publications.pik-potsdam.de/cone/journals/resource/journals354