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  Non-linear intensification of Sahel rainfall as a possible dynamic response to future warming

Schewe, J., Levermann, A. (2017): Non-linear intensification of Sahel rainfall as a possible dynamic response to future warming. - Earth System Dynamics, 8, 3, 495-505.
https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-8-495-2017

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 Creators:
Schewe, Jacob1, Author              
Levermann, Anders1, Author              
Affiliations:
1Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research, ou_persistent13              

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 Abstract: Projections of the response of Sahel rainfall to future global warming diverge significantly. Meanwhile, paleoclimatic records suggest that Sahel rainfall is capable of abrupt transitions in response to gradual forcing. Here we present climate modeling evidence for the possibility of an abrupt intensification of Sahel rainfall under future climate change. Analyzing 30 coupled global climate model simulations, we identify seven models where central Sahel rainfall increases by 40 to 300 % over the 21st century, owing to a northward expansion of the West African monsoon domain. Rainfall in these models is non-linearly related to sea surface temperature (SST) in the tropical Atlantic and Mediterranean moisture source regions, intensifying abruptly beyond a certain SST warming level. We argue that this behavior is consistent with a self-amplifying dynamic–thermodynamical feedback, implying that the gradual increase in oceanic moisture availability under warming could trigger a sudden intensification of monsoon rainfall far inland of today's core monsoon region.

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 Dates: 2017
 Publication Status: Finally published
 Pages: -
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 Table of Contents: -
 Rev. Type: Peer
 Identifiers: DOI: 10.5194/esd-8-495-2017
PIKDOMAIN: Climate Impacts & Vulnerabilities - Research Domain II
PIKDOMAIN: Sustainable Solutions - Research Domain III
eDoc: 7376
Research topic keyword: Atmosphere
Research topic keyword: Monsoon
Research topic keyword: Nonlinear Dynamics
Research topic keyword: Tipping Elements
Model / method: Model Intercomparison
Regional keyword: Africa
Organisational keyword: RD2 - Climate Resilience
Organisational keyword: RD3 - Transformation Pathways
Working Group: Impacts of Climate Change on Human Population Dynamics
Working Group: Impacts of Climate Change on Human Population Dynamics
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Title: Earth System Dynamics
Source Genre: Journal, SCI, Scopus, p3, oa
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Pages: - Volume / Issue: 8 (3) Sequence Number: - Start / End Page: 495 - 505 Identifier: CoNE: https://publications.pik-potsdam.de/cone/journals/resource/1402282