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  Hotspots of uncertainty in land-use and land-cover change projections: a global-scale model comparison

Prestele, R., Alexander, P., Rounsevell, M. D. A., Arneth, A., Calvin, K., Doelman, J., Eitelberg, D. A., Engström, K., Fujimori, S., Hasegawa, T., Havlik, P., Humpenöder, F., Jain, A. K., Krisztin, T., Kyle, P., Meiyappan, P., Popp, A., Sands, R. D., Schaldach, R., Schüngel, J., Stehfest, E., Tabeau, A., Meijl, H. v., Vliet, J. v., Verburg, P. H. (2016): Hotspots of uncertainty in land-use and land-cover change projections: a global-scale model comparison. - Global Change Biology, 22, 12, 3967-3983.
https://doi.org/10.1111/gcb.13337

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 Creators:
Prestele, R.1, Author
Alexander, P.1, Author
Rounsevell, M. D. A.1, Author
Arneth, A.1, Author
Calvin, K.1, Author
Doelman, J.1, Author
Eitelberg, D. A.1, Author
Engström, K.1, Author
Fujimori, S.1, Author
Hasegawa, T.1, Author
Havlik, P.1, Author
Humpenöder, Florian2, Author              
Jain, A. K.1, Author
Krisztin, T.1, Author
Kyle, P.1, Author
Meiyappan, P.1, Author
Popp, Alexander2, Author              
Sands, R. D.1, Author
Schaldach, R.1, Author
Schüngel, J.1, Author
Stehfest, E.1, AuthorTabeau, A.1, AuthorMeijl, H. van1, AuthorVliet, J. van1, AuthorVerburg, P. H.1, Author more..
Affiliations:
1External Organizations, ou_persistent22              
2Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research, ou_persistent13              

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 Abstract: Model‐based global projections of future land‐use and land‐cover (LULC) change are frequently used in environmental assessments to study the impact of LULC change on environmental services and to provide decision support for policy. These projections are characterized by a high uncertainty in terms of quantity and allocation of projected changes, which can severely impact the results of environmental assessments. In this study, we identify hotspots of uncertainty, based on 43 simulations from 11 global‐scale LULC change models representing a wide range of assumptions of future biophysical and socioeconomic conditions. We attribute components of uncertainty to input data, model structure, scenario storyline and a residual term, based on a regression analysis and analysis of variance. From this diverse set of models and scenarios, we find that the uncertainty varies, depending on the region and the LULC type under consideration. Hotspots of uncertainty appear mainly at the edges of globally important biomes (e.g., boreal and tropical forests). Our results indicate that an important source of uncertainty in forest and pasture areas originates from different input data applied in the models. Cropland, in contrast, is more consistent among the starting conditions, while variation in the projections gradually increases over time due to diverse scenario assumptions and different modeling approaches. Comparisons at the grid cell level indicate that disagreement is mainly related to LULC type definitions and the individual model allocation schemes. We conclude that improving the quality and consistency of observational data utilized in the modeling process and improving the allocation mechanisms of LULC change models remain important challenges. Current LULC representation in environmental assessments might miss the uncertainty arising from the diversity of LULC change modeling approaches, and many studies ignore the uncertainty in LULC projections in assessments of LULC change impacts on climate, water resources or biodiversity.

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 Dates: 2016
 Publication Status: Finally published
 Pages: -
 Publishing info: -
 Table of Contents: -
 Rev. Type: Peer
 Identifiers: DOI: 10.1111/gcb.13337
PIKDOMAIN: Sustainable Solutions - Research Domain III
eDoc: 7386
Research topic keyword: Land use
Research topic keyword: Food & Agriculture
Research topic keyword: Mitigation
Research topic keyword: Climate impacts
Model / method: Model Intercomparison
Model / method: MAgPIE
Regional keyword: Global
Organisational keyword: RD3 - Transformation Pathways
Working Group: Land-Use Management
 Degree: -

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Title: Global Change Biology
Source Genre: Journal, SCI, Scopus, p3
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Pages: - Volume / Issue: 22 (12) Sequence Number: - Start / End Page: 3967 - 3983 Identifier: CoNE: https://publications.pik-potsdam.de/cone/journals/resource/journals192