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  Multi-model uncertainty analysis in predicting grain N for crop rotations in Europe

Yin, X., Kersebaum, K. C., Kollas, C., Baby, S., Beaudoin, N., Manevski, K., Palosuo, T., Nendel, C., Wu, L., Hoffmann, M., Hoffmann, H., Sharif, B., Armas-Herrera, C. M., Bindi, M., Charfeddine, M., Conradt, T., Constantin, J., Ewert, F., Ferrise, R., Gaiser, T., Garcia de Cortazar-Atauri, I., Giglio, L., Hlavinka, P., Lana, M., Launay, M., Louarn, G., Manderscheid, R., Mary, B., Mirschel, W., Moriondo, M., Öztürk, I., Pacholski, A., Ripoche-Wachter, D., Rötter, R. P., Ruget, F., Trnka, M., Vantrella, D., Weigel, H.-J., Olesen, J. E. (2017): Multi-model uncertainty analysis in predicting grain N for crop rotations in Europe. - European Journal of Agronomy, 84, 152-165.
https://doi.org/10.1016/j.eja.2016.12.009

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Yin, X.1, Autor
Kersebaum, K. C.1, Autor
Kollas, Chris1, Autor
Baby, S.1, Autor
Beaudoin, N.1, Autor
Manevski, K.1, Autor
Palosuo, T.1, Autor
Nendel, C.1, Autor
Wu, L.1, Autor
Hoffmann, M.1, Autor
Hoffmann, H.1, Autor
Sharif, B.1, Autor
Armas-Herrera, C. M.1, Autor
Bindi, M.1, Autor
Charfeddine, M.1, Autor
Conradt, Tobias2, Autor              
Constantin, J.1, Autor
Ewert, F.1, Autor
Ferrise, R.1, Autor
Gaiser, T.1, Autor
Garcia de Cortazar-Atauri, I.1, AutorGiglio, L.1, AutorHlavinka, P.1, AutorLana, M.1, AutorLaunay, M.1, AutorLouarn, G.1, AutorManderscheid, R.1, AutorMary, B.1, AutorMirschel, W.1, AutorMoriondo, M.1, AutorÖztürk, I.1, AutorPacholski, A.1, AutorRipoche-Wachter, D.1, AutorRötter, R. P.1, AutorRuget, F.1, AutorTrnka, M.1, AutorVantrella, D.1, AutorWeigel, H.-J.1, AutorOlesen, J. E.1, Autor mehr..
Affiliations:
1External Organizations, ou_persistent22              
2Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research, ou_persistent13              

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 Zusammenfassung: Realistic estimation of grain nitrogen (N; N in grain yield) is crucial for assessing N management in crop rotations, but there is little information on the performance of commonly used crop models for simulating grain N. Therefore, the objectives of the study were to (1) test if continuous simulation (multi-year) performs better than single year simulation, (2) assess if calibration improves model performance at different calibration levels, and (3) investigate if a multi-model ensemble can substantially reduce uncertainty in reproducing grain N. For this purpose, 12 models were applied simulating different treatments (catch crops, CO2 concentrations, irrigation, N application, residues and tillage) in four multi-year rotation experiments in Europe to assess modelling accuracy. Seven grain and seed crops in four rotation systems in Europe were included in the study, namely winter wheat, winter barley, spring barley, spring oat, winter rye, pea and winter oilseed rape. Our results indicate that the higher level of calibration significantly increased the quality of the simulation for grain N. In addition, models performed better in predicting grain N of winter wheat, winter barley and spring barley compared to spring oat, winter rye, pea and winter oilseed rape. For each crop, the use of the ensemble mean significantly reduced the mean absolute percentage error (MAPE) between simulations and observations to less than 15%, thus a multi–model ensemble can more precisely predict grain N than a random single model. Models correctly simulated the effects of enhanced N input on grain N of winter wheat and winter barley, whereas effects of tillage and irrigation were less well estimated. However, the use of continuous simulation did not improve the simulations as compared to single year simulation based on the multi-year performance, which suggests needs for further model improvements of crop rotation effects.

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 Datum: 2017
 Publikationsstatus: Final veröffentlicht
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 Ort, Verlag, Ausgabe: -
 Inhaltsverzeichnis: -
 Art der Begutachtung: Expertenbegutachtung
 Identifikatoren: DOI: 10.1016/j.eja.2016.12.009
PIKDOMAIN: Climate Impacts & Vulnerabilities - Research Domain II
eDoc: 7432
Research topic keyword: Food & Agriculture
Model / method: SWIM
Regional keyword: Europe
Organisational keyword: RD2 - Climate Resilience
Working Group: Forest and Ecosystem Resilience
 Art des Abschluß: -

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Titel: European Journal of Agronomy
Genre der Quelle: Zeitschrift, SCI, Scopus
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Ort, Verlag, Ausgabe: -
Seiten: - Band / Heft: 84 Artikelnummer: - Start- / Endseite: 152 - 165 Identifikator: Anderer: Elsevier
Anderer: 1873-7331
ISSN: 1161-0301
CoNE: https://publications.pik-potsdam.de/cone/journals/resource/european-journal-of-agronomy